Oil long term technical analysis January 2017

Rocky year ahead

Crude oil price escaped sell-off in November after OPEC reached consensus to put production limit. Later in December, the price continue its rally as the market unwinding its short bet on crude oil future. Though the black gold already escaped sell-off, analyst still thinks a possibility for it to move lower toward $30 when the production cut implementation fail.

Overall, from the technical analysis, the road already opened for crude oil to reach resistance around $60. The market might need to watch President Trump policies later when he enter the White House.

Click here to see Oil November analysis

New Month

Monthly chart

Crude oil price saved by the bell as the price returned above its bullish long-term trendline. Overall the trend still bearish for crude oil, but there is a short-term development which shows the possibility the price will reach at least $60 in next coming months.

Weekly chart

The weekly chart showed a bullish indication when the price bounced from the green trendline. In December, the price broke above 2016 high and continued moving up. Currently, the price retrace down and looks to test the red bullish trendline.

If the price manages to maintain its position above the trendline, next it might move toward the Fibonacci Retracement level at $57.70 – $61.44.

Daily chart

The bearish engulfing pattern formed on the daily chart, and fortunately the pattern not yet triggered. If the pattern triggered, crude oil might move down lower toward the support $51.66. Successful bounce from the support level will lead the price higher toward $57.70 – $61.44 Fibonacci Retracement target.

Trade plan

Bullish trade: Look for a bounce from $51.66 level if the price manage to reach the level.

Bearish trade: Short position need to wait until the price reach resistance $61.44

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