The AUD/USD currency pair on Friday extended the current recovery to 0.7780 after bouncing off 0.7688 on Thursday. The pair continues to trade within a highly volatile ascending channel formation in the 60-min chart.
The pair has now recovered to trade at the 50% fib level in the 60-min chart. It is now pinned to the 100-hour SMA. The 200-hour SMA is a few levels below. The currency pair has rallied closer to the overbought levels of the 14-hour RSI.
AUD/USD Fundamentals Overview
The AUD/USD currency pair is trading at the back of a relatively busy period in the US market. On Friday, the US retail sales control group for April missed the expectation of -0.2% with a change of -1.5%. General retail sales also came short of the expected (MoM) change of 1% with a change of 0.0%. On the other hand, retail sales ex-autos missed the (MoM) expectation of 0.7% with -0.8%. The preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index for May came short of 90.4 with 82.8.
On Thursday, the initial jobless claims for the week ending May 7 beat the expected claim count of 490k with a tally of 473k. The PPI ex-food and energy for April beat 3.7% with a (YoY) change of 4.1%. Earlier in the week, the US CPI ex-food and energy beat the (MoM) and (YoY) expectations of 0.3% and 2.3% with 0.9% and 3%, respectively. In Australia, the seasonally-adjusted retail sales for March missed the (MoM) expectation of 1.4% with a change of 1.3%.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis (the 60-min Chart)
Technically, the AUD/USD currency pair appears to be trading within a highly volatile ascending channel formation in the 60-min chart. This indicates a significant short-term bullish bias in the market sentiment.
The bulls will be looking to extend the current bull-run towards 38.20% and 23.60% fib levels at 0.7807 and 0.7839, respectively. On the other hand, the bears will look to pounce on potential pullbacks at 61.80% and 76.40% fib levels at 0.7757 and 0.7725, respectively.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis (the Daily Chart)
In the daily chart, the AUD/USD currency pair appears to be on course to complete a head-and-shoulders pattern formation. This could result in a significant pullback in the currency pair.
The bears will be targeting extended pullbacks at around 0.9670 or lower at 0.7521. On the other hand, the bulls will look to pounce for profits at around 0.7900 or higher at 0.8022.