The AUD/USD currency pair on Friday extended declines towards 0.6000 after cutting the current 2-week recovery short at 0.6213. The currency pair latest pullback comes at the back of a sustained rally that dates back to March 17 when it bottomed at around 0.5510.
The currency pair has recently dropped to oversold levels of the 60-min 14-period RSI amid sustained bearish pressure. It is currently pegged below the 100-hour and 200-hour SMA lines.
AUD/USD Fundamentals Overview
From a fundamental perspective, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading at the back of a busy period in the US market. This week, the ISM Manufacturing PMI beat the expectation of 45 with 49.1. The ISM Manufacturing Employment Index also came in better than expected with 43.8 versus 43.6. The ISM non-Manufacturing employment index missed by a landslide with 47 versus 53.7 while the non-Manufacturing PMI beat 44 with 52.5.
The ADP Employment change smashed expectations with -27k versus -150k. However, the initial jobless claims of 6.648M for last week were higher than the expectation of 3.5M. Non-farm payrolls for March also disappointed on Friday with -701k versus an expectation of -100k while the average hourly wage growth of 3.1% beat 3.0%. On the other hand, the unemployment rate of 4.4% was higher than the expected level of 3.8%.
In Australia, the seasonally adjusted retail sales for February beat the (MoM) expectation of 0.4% with 0.5%. On the other hand, building permits change of 19.9% outshone the (MoM) estimate for February of 4.5%.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis (the 60-min Chart)
Technically, the AUD/USD currency pair appears to have recently pulled back off a major recovery following last month’s plunge. The current pullback is just passed the 23.60% Fib level.
The bulls will be targeting short-term profits at around the 23.60% Fib level at 0.6051 or higher at 0.6143. On the other hand, the bears will look to pounce on profits at around 38.20% and 50% Fib levels at 0.5942 or lower at 0.5859.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis (the Daily Chart)
In the daily chart, the AUD/USD currency pair appears to have recently rebounded from historical lows of about 0.5509. The currency pair has since rallied to recoup more than 30% of the losses. It currently trades just below the 38.20% Fib level. This recovery also pushed it off oversold levels of the daily 14-period RSI.
The bears will target long-term profits at around 0.5734 or lower at 0.0% Fib level at 0.5509. On the other hand, the bulls will be looking to extend the current gains towards 50% and 61.80% Fib levels at 0.6261 and 0.6450, respectively.