Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Technical Analysis for March 30, 2017

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Bitcoin is trading sideways and is consolidating inside a small symmetrical triangle seen on the 1-hour time frame. Price is nearing the peak of the pattern so a breakout might take place pretty soon, possibly before the end of the week and quarter.

The 100 SMA is crossing above the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame, signaling that the path of least resistance is to the upside. However, it may be too early to call this a convincing bullish signal just yet as the moving averages might still oscillate and indicate range-bound conditions. The moving averages are close to the bottom of the triangle, adding an extra layer of support in case volatility picks up and bitcoin makes a quick spike down.

Stochastic is on the move up but seems to be turning lower without even hitting the overbought zone. This indicates that sellers are eager to jump and push bitcoin back down. RSI is treading on middle ground, reflecting sideways price action and barely providing a clue on where bitcoin could be headed next.

Zooming out to longer-term time frames reveals that bitcoin just recently made an upside break from a descending channel pattern, signaling that there is some bullish momentum in play. However, this could still prove to be a fakeout if the rally is not sustained or if price falls back inside the longer-term channel.

There are still several arguments for further bitcoin weakness, particularly when it comes to regulatory acceptance and the looming hard fork. Two bitcoin ETF applications have already been denied by the SEC on grounds that the cryptocurrency is largely unregulated in several markets, opening it to a large incidence of fraud and manipulation. A third ETF is still lined up but the odds of getting approval look slim.

Meanwhile, the network hard fork is keeping investors on edge for fear of losing value in their holdings. Some firms have already warned their clients of potential incompatibilities that may arise and urged caution moving forward. Still, bitcoin is able to draw some support from prevailing market uncertainties, especially since Article 50 has already been invoked by the UK government.

Brexit negotiations could mean risks for both the EU and the UK so a bulk of long bitcoin positions could come from Europe if investors in the area are unhappy with how the talks are going. The US dollar is also losing some ground lately on weaker expectations that the Trump administration can push its fiscal policy reform agenda without much roadblocks.

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