Bitcoin ($BTC), the top crypto asset, is approximately 13% below its long-run mean valuation level. As per Glassnode data, this threshold has preceded substantial price gains in previous market cycles. BTC is currently trading around $85,250.

This analysis is about Bitcoin’s historical performance relative to the Mean MVRV price. Mean MVRV price is an on-chain valuation benchmark that tracks the market’s long-term mean valuation. Historical data indicates that Bitcoin’s strongest advances in previous cycles largely followed the return of this metric above this level.

With BTC still trading below the benchmark, bulls are waiting for a sustained reclaim to determine if the market is going to enter another expansion phase.

Bitcoin’s Mean MVRV Price Marks a Key Historical Threshold

Glassnode’s latest X tweet compares Bitcoin’s market price with its Mean MVRV price across multiple market cycles. The upper section shows Bitcoin’s price as a black line. The Mean MVRV price is shown with a purple line. Both lines are plotted on a logarithmic scale. Green markers identify the first daily close above the valuation benchmark. The shaded green areas indicate periods when $BTC traded above the line.

According to this historical comparison, Bitcoin’s major upward movements followed the initial reclaims. The pattern suggests that recovering the long-run valuation benchmark has historically coincided with a shift toward stronger bullish momentum.

Currently, Bitcoin remains around 13% below the Mean MVRV price which is around $96,000. This leaves BTC short of the threshold highlighted in the analysis.

Historical Bitcoin Cycles Recorded Significant Gains After Reclaim

The chart’s lower panel measures Bitcoin’s price as a multiple of its first daily close above the Mean MVRV price following a cycle low. It tracks the subsequent advance until the cycle top.

The historical results show substantial gains after the benchmark was reclaimed. In 2017 cycle, Bitcoin reached approximately 32 times its initial reclaim price. 2021 cycle peaked nearly 7.8 times. In recent cycle, the metric reached approximately 3.3 times.

The cycle tops have previously appeared more than a year after the initial reclaim. However, the historical multiples don’t guarantee future returns. Other factors like market structure, liquidity conditions and demand can affect the price between cycles.