The EUR/CHF currency pair spiked on Friday to trade at about 1.1040 just days after bottoming at about 1.0855. The pair has now hit overbought levels in the 60-min RSI indicator and this could trigger the next pullback.
The currency pair is now trading at a new 2-month high following Friday’s surge as optimism build amid Brexit hopes and positive developments in US-China trade talks.
EUR/CHF Fundamentals Overview
From a fundamental perspective, the EUR/CHF currency pair is trading at the back of a significant build-up in market optimism. On Thursday, news emerged that China had sent a delegation to meet in Washington and discuss a possible resolution to trade relations with the US.
This has created a positive atmosphere around risk-on trading which favors currencies like the Euro to strengthen. There have also been positive developments around Brexit despite the recent setback that saw Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party reject EU’s offer on concession talks.
Yesterday, the German current account balance, trade balance, and exports missed expectations for August but imports beat expectations of -0.2% with 0.5%. The Italian industrial output also came short of expectations but this did not affect the market optimism towards the Euro.
EUR/CHF Technical Analysis (the 60-min Chart)
Technically, the EUR/CHF currency pair appears to be trading under extreme bullish pressure in the short-term. The pair has recently ventured into the overbought zone of the RSI indicator, and this could trigger a pullback in the next few days.
Therefore, the bears will be targeting profits at around 1.1000 or lower at 1.0994. On the other hand, the bulls will hope that the upward movement can continue towards 1.1040 or higher at 1.1056.
EUR/CHF Technical Analysis (the Daily Chart)
In the daily chart, the EUR/CHF currency pair appears to be trading in a descending channel, which indicates strong bearish bias. Therefore, the recent bullish run may be nothing more than a rebound as the bears seek to retain control in the long-term.
The bears will be targeting long-term profits at around 1.10971, 1.0890 or lower at 1.0828. On the other hand, the bulls will hope that the current rebound can take the pair above the trendline resistance towards 1.1150 or higher at 1.1253.
In summary, the EUR/CHF currency pair appears to be experiencing strong bearish pressure in the long-term, but in the short-term, the bulls have taken control.