EUR/USD Exchange Rate Targets June High as the Bullish RSI Trend Remains Unchanged


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EUR/USD has just extended the advance from what was seen earlier this week to start trading to a new monthly high, averaging at 1.1352 and the formation of the bull flag might unfold over the next few days as the RSI continue trading the bullish trend from early this year.


The EUR/USD eyes the 1.1423 June high, although the EU downgrades the economic aspect for the Eurozone, with the commission now predicting an 8.7% contraction this year as opposed to their initial prediction for a 7.7 percent decline.

Fears of a forthcoming deeper recession might pressurize the European central bank (ECB) to continue supporting the fiscal union. This will happen as the governing councils stand prepared to change all their instruments. On the other hand, the central bank might recommend the dovish forward guidance during 2020’s second half as the ECB officials ignore the V-shape recovery.

It is yet to be seen whether the ECB will deploy additional unconventional tools to expand the COVID-19 Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by 600 billion Euros in June. Also, the central bank might remain on the sidelines, as it’s yet to make the final decision about the interest rates on 16 July. On the other hand, Phillip Lane, who is the Chief Economist emphasized that the Eurozone is already in the second phase of recovery. Similar to what was reported in EUR/USD RSI Bullish Trend Before The US Jobless Report.

It is highly likely that the ECB is on the track to establishing the wait and see strategy. Yves Mersch, who is a board member, revealed that the coronavirus recovery fund would minimize the burden on fiscal policy and the need for more easing of the policy recommendations. President Christine Lagarde, who is the head of the central bank, insisted that the recovery fund would be the greatest game-changer.

On the other hand, the ECB might slowly soften the current dovish forward outline as Charles Michel, who is the European Council president vowed to initiate real negotiations with the existing member states and would hold an in-person summit in Brussels in mid-July. Furthermore, it is highly likely that the ECB officials might take their speculation for more financial support as the Eurozone activities are expected to rebound in Q3.

With that said, their hesitation to adopt low-interest rates might keep the EUR/USD on the edge for a while as the ECB looks committed to retaining the existing monetary policy this month. Technically speaking, the exchange rate might also try testing the 1.1495 March high as the formation of the bull flag take shape. All this will be happening as the RIS continues tracking the bullish trend from March.



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