EUR/USD long-term technical analysis
The dovish outlook from the Fed means weak U.S dollar but we have a contrary result this year. U.S dollar index climbs on uncertainties on global growth and the Brexit stalemate. Moreover, trade talks between U.S-China moving back and forth until this month possibility that U.S and China will forge an agreement by the end of the month.
EUR/USD relatively weak since the start of this year. ECB acted as predicted, halting interest-rate hike and might restart the loose monetary policies to stoke growth. 1.1300 is the key for EUR/USD this month, next direction will be determined by where the pair closed at the end of the month.
Click here to see EUR/USD long-term analysis March 2019
EUR/USD closed below 1.1300 in the previous month and confirmed breakout below the support level. There is no follow through by the bear yet this month. Instead of moving down, the pair climb and testing the broken support level. If the bull could close the pair above 1.1300 then it will cancel the breakout and bring hope for a rally.
The high and the low gets lower on the weekly chart which means EUR/USD still could not escape its bearish trend. The pair fell below weekly SMA 200 and stay below the averages. There is no reason to switch to the long-side yet.
The trend on the daily chart is bearish and follow the outlook on the weekly and the monthly chart. However, there is possible bullish development as EUR/USD print similar low in the latest downswing. If the pair could print a higher high or close above the trendline and daily SMA 200 then it is possible the trend will turn bullish.
The overall trend is bearish and no reason to switch to the long-side yet. EUR/USD will test 1.1300 this month and next direction will be determined from where the pair closed at the end of the month. Traders could prepare for short positions near the 1.1300 with a stop above daily SMA 200.