Forex Market Outlook For The Week October 07 – 11, 2019

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Last week the markets were rocked by the political turmoil in the U.S. and as Non-Farm Payrolls data missed analysts’ expectations. The key releases scheduled for the upcoming week include the minutes of the meeting from the U.S. Federal Reserve, U.S. inflation figures, and U.K. GDP and manufacturing production. Here is an outlook on a few important data from around the world:

#1: U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks (10/07/2019 Monday 17:00 GMT)

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, is scheduled to deliver brief remarks at a film premiere to be held in Salt Lake City. Markets often turn volatile during his speeches as traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates in the future.

#2: U.K. BoE Governor Mark Carney Speaks (10/08/2019 Tuesday 04:10 GMT)

forex market outlookMark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is scheduled to speak in Tokyo on climate change at the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure Summit. Markets often turn volatile during his speeches as traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates in the future.

#3: U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks (10/08/2019 Tuesday 17:50 GMT)

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, is scheduled to deliver a speech titled “A View from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors” at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics in Denver. Markets often turn volatile during his speeches as traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates in the future.

#4: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (10/09/2019 Wednesday 14:30 GMT)

In the United States, crude oil inventories rose by more than analysts’ expectations during the week that ended on September 27, according to data published by the Energy Information Administration. Crude oil stocks increased 3.1 million barrels to 422.6 million barrels, marking an increase for the third week in a row. Analysts had expected the crude oil stocks to increase by 1.5 million barrels. Crude stocks had increased by 2.4 million barrels during the previous week. Gasoline inventories declined 0.2 million barrels to 230 million barrels during the same period against analysts’ expectations for a gain of 0.45 million barrels.

#5: U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks (10/09/2019 Wednesday 15:00 GMT)

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City at the Fed Listens event. The audience expected to ask questions. As such, the market is expected to turn volatile during his speech. This is because traders look for clues on the direction of interest rates in the future.

#6: U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (10/09/2019 Wednesday 18:00 GMT)

The minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting for setting interest rates provide a detailed account as to what transpired and in-depth insights into the economic as well as financial conditions that impacted their votes. The minutes of the September meeting may provide some information as regards the difference of opinion within the most powerful central bank in the world. The Fed decided to reduce the interest rates for the second consecutive month and refused to indicate whether more reductions are possible in the near future. Three members were against the decision taken by the majority. It indicates that either the hawks are gaining more control or the central bank is becoming worried about the developments across the globe. The minutes are released three weeks after the announcement of the Federal Funds Rate and it is important to note that it is edited for the purpose of conveying a message to traders and investors.

#7: U.K. GDP (10/10/2019 Thursday 08:30 GMT)

In the United Kingdom, the GDP grew by 0.3 percent in July, allaying fears that the economy is sliding into a recession. The stronger-than-expected reading came in following the British economy’s stagnation in the prior month. In October, the data for August, the first of Boris Johnson as Britain’s prime minister, will be announced. It is to be seen whether the economy will continue to grow in line with upbeat employment data or suffer because of Brexit uncertainty.

Forecast for August 2019: 0.0 percent, no growth or contraction anticipated

#8: U.K. Manufacturing Production (10/10/2019 Thursday 08:30 GMT)

In the United Kingdom, manufacturing production increased by 0.3 percent in July, rebounding from the 0.2 percent decline reported for the month of June. The reading for the month came in better than analysts’ expectations for a 0.1 percent decline.

Forecast for August 2019: 0.1 percent growth expected

#9: China New Loans (10/10/2019 to 10/14/2019)

The People’s Bank of China announces the value of all new yuan-denominated loans that are issued to businesses and consumers every month 11 days after the end of a month. Traders look forward to the release of this report because it helps them correlate borrowing and spending in a positive manner. Consumers and businesses seek credit when they are confident about their future financial position and are ready to spend money.

#10: BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks (10/10/2019 Thursday 09:20 GMT)

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is scheduled to speak at the event organized for the launch of the £20 Banknote in England. Markets often turn volatile during his speeches as traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates in the future.

#11: Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (10/10/2019 Thursday 11:30 GMT)

The European Central Bank releases the Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts 4 weeks after the announcement of the Minimum Bid Rate. The report provides a detailed account of the most recent meeting of the ECB Governing Board. In addition, it provides in-depth insights into the economic conditions that impacted their decision on setting interest rates.

#12: U.S. CPI and Core CPI (10/10/2019 Thursday 12:30 GMT)

In the U.S., consumer prices increased by 0.10 percent on a month-on-month basis in the month of August. The core inflation rate (excluding volatile items like food and energy) rose by 0.3 percent.

Forecast for September 2019: CPI and Core CPI are expected to increase by 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent respectively

#13: Canada Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (10/11/2019 Friday 12:30 GMT)

Canada added 81,100 jobs in the month of August after shedding 24,200 jobs in the prior month. The reading for the month beat analysts’ expectations for an addition of 15,000 jobs. Employment increased in Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec (+20,000), Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick. There were no job additions or losses in other provinces. Industry-wise, employment increased in finance, insurance, rental and leasing, and real estate; educational services; and scientific, professional, and technical services sectors. In contrast, businesses, as well as building and other support services, reported job losses.

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