Forex Market Outlook For The Week October 14 – 18, 2019

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Last week, the hints provided by the Fed as regards the next interest rate decision and trade talks rocked markets. The focus has now shifted to the Brexit and key consumer data from the US. Here is an outlook on some of the important economic data scheduled for release in the upcoming week from around the world:

#1: Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (10/15/2019 Tuesday 00:30 GMT)

The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the most recent Monetary Policy Meeting two weeks after the announcement of the Cash Rate. The statement provides a detailed account of the most recent meeting held by the Central Bank’s Board for deciding the Cash Rate. It also provides in-depth insights as regards the economic conditions that impacted their decision.

#2: U.K. BoE Governor Mark Carney Speaks (10/15/2019 Tuesday 08:30 GMT)

forex market outlookMark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is scheduled to testify before the Treasury Select Committee on the Financial Stability Report in London. Markets often turn volatile during his speeches as traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates in the future.

#3: China New Loans (10/15/2019 Tuesday and 10/16/2019 Wednesday)

The banks in China extended a net of 1.21 trillion yuan in new loans in August compared to 1.06 trillion yuan in the prior month. Analysts had expected the banks to extend new loans of 1.20 trillion yuan. Household loans, mostly mortgages, rose to 653.8 billion yuan in August from 511.2 billion yuan in July. Corporate loans increased to 651.3 billion yuan from 297.4 billion yuan. Foreign currency loans dropped US$ 1.4 billion.

Forecast for September 2019: 1.35 billion yuan

#4: New Zealand CPI (10/15/2019 Tuesday 21:45 GMT)

In New Zealand, the CPI rose by 0.6 percent in the June quarter of this year driven by housing and household utilities, food prices, household contents and services, and transport.

Forecast for September quarter 2019: 0.6 percent increase

#5: U.K. CPI (10/16/2019 Wednesday 08:30 GMT)

In the United Kingdom, the annual inflation rate fell to the 1.7 percent level in August from 2.1 percent in the prior month. The reading for the month came in below analysts’ expectations of 1.9 percent. This was the lowest inflation rate ever since December 2016, driven by a slowdown in transport cost and a decline in the prices of clothing and footwear.

Forecast for September 2019: 1.8 percent

#6: Canada CPI (10/16/2019 Wednesday 12:30 GMT)

In Canada, consumer prices decreased by 0.10 percent in the month of August from the previous month.

Forecast for September 2019: expected to decline 0.3 percent

#7: U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales (10/16/2019 Wednesday 12:30 GMT)

In the United States, retail trade increased by 0.4 percent on a month-on-month basis in August, following the revised 0.8 percent gain in July. The reading for the month beat analysts’ expectations for an increase of 0.2 percent. Retail trade was boosted by spending on building materials, motor vehicles, healthcare, and hobbies.

Core retail trade, which excludes autos, remained unchanged in August, following the 1.0 percent increase in the prior month. The reading for the month missed analysts’ expectations for an increase of 0.1 percent.

Forecast for September 2019: Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are expected to increase by 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively

#8: U.K. BoE Governor Mark Carney Speaks (10/16/2019 Wednesday 13:00 GMT)

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is scheduled to speak at an event organized by the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC. Markets often turn volatile during his speeches as traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates in the future.

#9: U.K. BoE Governor Mark Carney Speaks (10/16/2019 Wednesday 22:30 GMT)

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is scheduled to speak at Harvard Kennedy School in Boston. Markets often turn volatile during his speeches as traders make an attempt to understand the direction of interest rates in the future.

#10: Australia Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (10/17/2019 Thursday 00:30 GMT)

In Australia, employment rose by 34,700 to 12.93 million in the month of August after the reading for the prior month was revised downward to an increase of 36,400 in July. The reading for the month beat analysts’ expectations for an addition of 10,000 jobs. Full-time jobs declined by 15,500 and part-time employment increased by 50,000.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate rose to 5.3 percent from 5.2 percent in the prior month. The reading for the month was in line with analysts’ expectations. This is the highest jobless rate ever since August last year. The number of unemployed persons in Australia increased 4,100.

Forecast for September 2019: Australia is expected to add 15,300 jobs, while unemployment is expected to remain at 5.3 percent

#11: U.K. Retail Sales (10/17/2019 Thursday 08:30 GMT)

In the United Kingdom, retail sales dropped 0.2 percent on a month-on-month basis in August after the reading for the previous month was revised upward to a gain of 0.4 percent. Analysts had expected the retail sales reading to remain flat in August. Non-store retailing, mainly online sales, dropped 3.2 percent. This is the biggest decline ever since August 2015. Additionally, textile, clothing, and footwear sales declined by 0.1 percent. On the other hand, sales increased for household goods, fuel, and food. On a year-on-year basis, the growth in retail trade eased to 2.7 percent from the 3.4 percent level in July. The annual reading for August missed analysts’ forecasts for an increase of 2.9 percent.

Month-on-month forecast for September 2019: Retail trade is expected to decline by 0.1 percent

#12: U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (10/17/2019 Thursday 12:30 GMT)

In the United States, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index with respect to current general activity declined 4.8 points on a month-on-month basis to 12 in September. The reading for the month, however, beat analysts’ expectations of 11. While the index for current new orders declined slightly, the current shipments index increased. Meanwhile, both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes remained positive in September. This suggested slower delivery times and higher unfilled orders.

Firms reported an overall improvement in employment in the manufacturing sector during the month. About 25 percent of the businesses reported higher employment, but 9 percent reported a decline in employment. The employment index and average workweek index also registered increases.

Forecast for October 2019: 7.3

#13: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (10/17/2019 Thursday 15:00 GMT)

In the United States, crude oil stocks rose by 2.927 million barrels during the week that ended on October 4, following the 3.1 million barrels increase in the prior week. Analysts had expected crude oil inventories to increase by 1.413 million barrels during the week. Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.213 million barrels after the 0.228 million barrels decline in the prior week. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.257 million barrels.

#14: China GDP (10/18/2019 Thursday 02:00 GMT)

China’s GDP grew 6.2 percent on a year-on-year basis in the June quarter of this year, slowing from the 6.4 percent expansion in the prior period. The reading for the June quarter matched with analysts’ expectations. This is the lowest GDP growth rate ever since the March quarter of 1992 because of ongoing trade tensions, weakening global demand, and an alarming level of off-balance-sheet borrowings made by local governments.

Forecast for September quarter 2019: 6.1 percent

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