Forex Outlook for the Week September 26 – 30, 2016

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Last week, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rates unchanged as expected. However, the monetary policy committee pointed out that a rate hike is possible before the end of the year. Though the Central Bank was confident of the economic growth, it decided to maintain the interest rates at the same level as in the September meeting. Three members had opposed the statement and the rate hike decision is now likely to be taken at the meeting scheduled during December 13 and 14. In the mean time, the policy members reduced the expectations for economic growth and inflation in the current year. The Bank of Japan also did not implement any policy changes, but are now targeting long-term interests rates rather than fully committing themselves to a specific QE target. Meanwhile, talks of a Hard Brexit weighed down the pound, but the euro continued to maintain its frustrating range. The Australian dollar recovered against the kiwi. The key economic data releases scheduled for the current week are as follows:

#1: German Ifo Business Climate (09/26/2016 Monday 8:00 GMT)

forex1In August, the German business climate index declined unexpectedly to 106.2 from 108.3 in the month of July amid Brexit concerns, recording the sharpest decline in over four years. In spite of the words of confidence that the policy makers have issued, economists continue to be concerned about the fact that a weaker external demand could downgrade the outlook for growth in September. For the month of September, economists forecast that the German business climate index will remain at the same level at 106.3.

#2: Swiss National Bank Chairman Jordan Speaks (09/26/2016 Monday 9:30 GMT)

Swiss National Bank governing board chairman Thomas Jordan is due to speak in Geneva at the Sibos 2016. Volatility can be expected during his speeches. This is because the traders try to decipher clues on interest rate changes.

#3: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Speaks (09/26/2016 Monday 14:00 GMT)

President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi is scheduled to testify in front of the European Parliament Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels. It is expected that he will talk about deflation risks in spite of the negative rates and generous quantitative easing. He is also expected to provide further details as regards QE evolution as he did not touch this aspect in the post-rate decision press release. Volatility can be expected.

#4: Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz Speaks (09/26/2016 Monday 23:10 GMT)

Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz is scheduled to speak on Monday at Washington DC. Recently, he spoke about the growing uncertainty when it comes to Canada’s economic recovery. It contradicted the view he expressed in July that the GDP expanded the most in June in as many as the last three years.

#5: US CB Consumer Confidence (09/27/2016 Tuesday 14:00 GMT)

The CB consumer confidence index reached the 101.1 mark in August, against analysts’ expectation of 97.2, as US consumers were more optimistic. For the month of July, the Conference Board consumer confidence index was revised downward to 96.7 from 97.3 reported earlier. In August, 30 percent of the respondents said that the business conditions were better compared to the 27.3 percent in the previous month. Meanwhile, 18.4 percent of the respondents expressed concern about the business conditions. More respondents said that jobs were abundant. However, the number of respondents claiming that it is hard to find jobs also increased. The CB consumer confidence index is expected to come in at 98.6 in September.

#6: US Core Durable Goods Orders (09/28/2016 Wednesday 12:30 GMT)

For the second consecutive month, the number of new orders for durable goods increased as demand for machinery and other products rose in the month of July. This suggested a rebound in business spending. The core durable goods orders rose 1.5 percent in the month of July after declining 0.4 percent in the previous month. Overall, the number of orders jumped 4.4 percent. The figure for the month of June was revised downward to an increase of 4.2 percent. However, the business investment is likely to be only moderate in the third quarter. While durable goods orders are expected to drop by 1.0 percent, core durable goods orders are expected to decline by 0.5 percent in August.

#7: US Crude Oil Inventories (09/28/2016 Wednesday 14:30 GMT)

In the U.S., the crude stocks declined for the third consecutive week. Contrary to the expectation of the economists that the stocks will increase by as many as 3.2 million barrels, crude oil inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels. This has caused the oil prices to jump by as much as 3 percent. According to some analysts, crude stockpiles in the U.S. are still very high and prices could experience downward pressure once again.

#8: Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks (09/29/2016 Thursday 6:35 GMT)

Governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, is scheduled to speak in Tokyo this week. He is expected to speak about the central bank’s readiness to further ease monetary policy, if required. This is to ensure that the 2 percent inflation target and give a boost to the economy. Market volatility can be expected during his speech.

#9: US Second Quarter Final GDP Data (09/29/2016 Thursday 12:30 GMT)

The US has been suffering weak economic growth for three quarters now. The growth was just about 1.0 percent during these quarters. According to the second estimate for the second quarter of this year, the economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.1 percent. The final GDP growth rate for the second quarter is expected to be revised upward to 1.3 percent. High hopes for a robust third quarter growth are also getting eroded.

#10: US Unemployment Claims (09/29/2016 Thursday 12:30 GMT)

The number of people in America filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to 252,000. This is the lowest level since April this year. This indicates that the employment market is remaining robust despite moderate hiring. Further, the reading came in better than the analysts expectation of 262,000 claims. The four-week average claims dropped to 258,500 from 260,750 in the previous week. For the next report, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits is expected to come in at 260,000.

#11: Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks (09/29/2016 Thursday 20:00 GMT)

Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairperson, is scheduled to speak at the Minority Bankers Forum in the city of Kansas. She is expected to talk about the reasons for maintaining rates in the meeting held earlier this month and also give further clues about the next hike which is likely to happen around Christmas. Market volatility can be expected during her speech.

#12: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (09/30/2016 1:45 GMT)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI for August came in at 50.0, down from 50.6 for the month of July. For September, the reading is expected to come in at 50.1.

#13: UK Current Account (09/30/2016 8:30

The UK’s current account deficit for the first quarter of 2016 dropped to £32.6 billion, up from the deficit of £34 billion for the previous quarter. The reading came in above the market expectations. For the second quarter of 2016, it is expected that the current account deficit will be £30.5 billion.

#14: Canadian GDP data (09/30/2016 Friday 12:30.

Canada’s GDP rose 0.6 percent in June, rebounding from the 0.6 percent decline registered in the previous month. The economy also expanded more than the 0.4 percent growth forecast by the analysts.

#15: China Manufacturing PMI (10/01/2016 Saturday 1:00 GMT)

In August, the NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.4 from 49.9 in the month of July, beating market expectations of a reading of 49.9. The reading for August was the highest since October 2014 as new orders and output rose at a faster pace. Further, employment and new export orders fell less than that in the previous month. Additionally, there were improvements in buying activity and raw material inventory. There was also marked growth in expected production and business activities.

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