Natural gas is trending lower but might be due for a pullback from the recent slide. Price is bouncing off support at $2.470 and could head up to the nearby Fibonacci retracement levels.
The Fib tool shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the falling trend line connecting the highs since late March. This also coincides with an area of interest or former support around $2.650 that might hold as resistance from here. The 50% level lines up with the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point at $2.600.
On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. The gap between the moving averages is also widening to reflect stronger selling pressure.
RSI is heading up, though, so there is some bullish momentum left. The oscillator has some room to climb before reaching the overbought zone, so buyers could stay in control for a bit longer. Stochastic is also turning up to show the presence of bullish momentum but is closing in on the overbought zone to signal exhaustion. Turning back down could lead natural gas price to follow suit and resume the drop to the swing low or lower.
Analysts say that natural gas is down to “no man’s land” so it could be vulnerable to head further south on the lack of nearby support zones that could attract buyers. Some predict that it won’t be long before the $2.50 support would break and natural gas could fall as low as $1 next.
Keep in mind that warmer months are just starting to set in and that these weather conditions are set to last until the latter part of the year, so demand is set to keep dropping.