USD/MXN NEW WEEK – MIXED SIGNALS & RISK ASSESSMENT

USD/MXN KEY POINTS:

  • USD/MXN mixed signals
  • Chinese EZ and GDP economic recovery fund will be vital to measure the risk sentiment next week
  • Mexico cases of COVID-19 on the rise
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Mexico has made it to the news this past week, and not for the best reasons. Covid-19 is spreading quite fast in Mexico. This makes it the second country in Latin America with the highest fatalities related to coronavirus. As of today, there are over 33,500 patients who have succumbed to the diseases in Mexico since this pandemic started. Mexico is only second to Brazil, where so far 69,000 people have died of the coronavirus. This has also been discussed Brazilian Real Strengthens on EM Risk Appetite, Falling COVID-19 Cases.

Nevertheless, it’s important to take note of the fact that Brazil’s population has 85,000 more citizens as compared to Mexico. Considering that Brazil has so far recorded about 1.7 million COVID-19 infections, whereas Mexico has only recorded 282,000. On the other hand, Mexico’s death rate has much higher as the stats show. Last Thursday, it was evident that the daily infections have reached a new level in the country that has a total of 6,741 new infections, followed by the new record of COVID-19 cases this Wednesday, which stood at 6,997 infections. The number of new infections increased to 7,280 on Thursday. While the full extent of COVID-19 isn’t clear, the current figures clearly show that things are not going the way they are supposed to. Unfortunately, the Mexican peso is also feeling the heat.

USD/MXN-Week-Ahead-Signals

USDMXN-Week-Ahead-Signals

As a result, the risk sentiment has unfortunately suffered another drawback this week. This has happened as the equity markets respond to the increasing COVID-19 cases around the world, even though china shares are taking the bullish run, somehow resembling 2015’s pathway to the stock market crash. On the other hand, the USD made some quick recovery to get to their previous high. This has sent the risk-on the currency pairs much lower. However, the slight bullish nudge made a return by the end of this week. This was largely because of the news that a vaccine for COVID-19 will be out by the end of the year.

Looking ahead, it’s highly likely that the investors will remain focused on COVID-19 figures to assess the market sentiment, with the united states being used as the basis for the wide risk sentiment. Next week will be a determining factor on the economic calendar, but it’s highly likely that special attention would be drawn to the Chinese GDP in the second quarter. This is because China will by large be the first nation to materialize the effect of COVID-19 in Q2. It is also the country that was worst hit by the virus. Although China has made some great progress ahead of other countries when it comes to economic recovery and lifting the lockdown, some changing form the market expectations will most likely result in increased volatility.

Another important point of concern will be the upcoming meeting to discuss the Eurozone pandemic recovery fund. This is because Austria and the Netherlands seem to be supporting the fund.

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