Crude oil could be due for a continuation from its strong surge past a short-term resistance level as it forms a bullish flag pattern. A break past the $66 per barrel level could spur a rally that’s the same height as the mast.
This spans around $63.50 per barrel to $66 per barrel so the resulting climb could be $2.50 in size. A break below the short-term consolidation, on the other hand, could spur a drop to the nearby area of interest at $64.50 per barrel.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, the climb is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. These moving averages also span the area of interest, adding more dynamic support areas for interested buyers.
RSI is heading slowly lower to show a return in selling pressure after indicating overbought conditions for quite some time. Stochastic is also hovering around the overbought territory to signal exhaustion among buyers and could be due to turn lower to show a return in selling pressure.
Crude oil drew a strong boost from reports that the US would withdraw the waivers on oil sanctions on Iran. On top of the ongoing OPEC output deal, this would further restrict global supply of the commodity. This would impact buyers in Asia, particularly India and China, so they would have to look for supply elsewhere, likely in the US.
However, weakening demand forecasts on account of lowered global growth estimates could also put some downside pressure on crude oil prices. So far, inventory data from the API and EIA have signaled a reduction in stockpiles to suggest that demand is keeping up with production.
Also note that sanctions on Venezuela are in play and that this also contributes to weaker output.