WTI crude oil continues to consolidate inside its symmetrical triangle pattern but is approaching the peak of the formation, so a break could be due soon. Price is currently testing support and might be due for a bounce back to resistance at $56 per barrel next.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, support is more likely to break than to hold. In that case, crude oil might be in for a slide that’s around the same height as the chart formation, which spans $51 per barrel to $58 per barrel.

RSI hasn’t quite reached the oversold region but is turning higher to signal that buyers are eager to return. Stochastic is also hovering close to the oversold region to signal exhaustion among sellers. Turning back up could mean that bulls could charge again and possibly push for a break past the triangle top.

The commodity could be waiting on the release of the next set of inventory figures from the Energy Information Administration, and another large decline in stockpiles could spur an upside break. However, it would be tough to top the earlier reduction of 10 million barrels, so a small increase seems more likely this time.

Apart from that, overall market sentiment could likely push prices around, especially with the US NFP report up for release on Friday. A slower gain of 160K jobs is eyed compared to the earlier 164K increase, but a weaker than expected read could reinforce expectations of more Fed rate cuts.

In that case, commodities might be able to pick up on dollar weakness and possible risk-taking in anticipation of additional economic stimulus. Keep in mind, however, that crude oil is included in the list of products targeted by China in its retaliatory measures, so this could cripple demand.