ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Raises Output Expectations

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) stock rose 0.65% (As on August 4, 12:03:41 AM UTC-4, Source: Google Finance) after the company slightly raised its full-year output expectations, even as it posted a lower-than-expected quarterly profit. Earnings at U.S. oil producers have been dented by weak oil and gas prices in recent months, though higher production at some of the larger shale oil producers has helped offset some of the pain. Conoco said output rose 6% to 1.81 million barrels of oil and gas per day (boepd), at the higher end of prior guidance, with record output in the U.S. Lower 48 states.

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COP in the second quarter of FY 23 has reported the adjusted earnings per share of $1.84, missing the analysts’ estimates for the adjusted earnings per share of $2. The EPS fell from $3.91 in Q2/22, primarily due to lower prices partially offset by increased volumes. For the quarter, cash provided by operating activities was $3.9 billion. Excluding a $0.8 billion change in working capital, ConocoPhillips generated CFO of $4.7 billion and received $0.2 billion primarily related to a prior year disposition. The company funded $2.9 billion of capital expenditures and investments. In addition, the company paid $1.4 billion in ordinary dividends and VROC and repurchased $1.3 billion of shares.

For Q3, the company expects production in the range of 1.78-1.82 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED). For the full-year, production is now expected in the range of 1.80-1.81 MMBOED (vs. prior 1.78-1.80 MMBOED). Conoco also narrowed its capital spending guidance range to between $10.8 billion and $11.2 billion, from previous guidance of $10.7 billion to $11.3 billion as the company steps down spending in the Lower 48 states and with a larger chunk of its funding for Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG project completed in the first half.

Meanwhile, after the earnings announcement, Citi reiterated its Buy rating and a $200 price target on the company. According to Citi, there has been an upward adjustment in year-over-year volume growth, increasing from +3% to +4% at the midpoint. “We think performance in the Lower 48 (particularly Permian) is driving the difference. Capex guidance is unchanged, as are shareholder distributions of $11 B,” mentioned Citi.

Roth MKM reiterated its Buy rating and $118 price target on the stock, highlighting several positive factors, including the company’s strong balance sheet, a well-diversified asset portfolio across international markets, lower production declines compared to its peers, consistent low-single-digit production growth, and robust returns of capital to shareholders, which exceed 30% of cash flow from operations.

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