WTI crude oil is carving out a symmetrical triangle pattern, with a descending trend line connecting the lower highs since the spring high near $93 and a rising trend line connecting the higher lows off the July bottom around $68.

Price recently bounced off the triangle’s ascending support and is now grinding higher toward the upper boundary near $83.50, currently trading around $82.32.

This upper trend line also lines up with the 61.8% Fib retracement of the swing from the July low to the August high, plotted at roughly $83.45, adding some weight to this zone as potential resistance. A rejection here could send price back down to retest the 50% Fib near $80.50 or the 38.2% level around $77.55, both of which sit close to the rising triangle support and the 200 SMA.

The 100 SMA has climbed back above the 200 SMA, reflecting the shift in momentum since the July low, with price holding above both moving averages to suggest these could continue acting as dynamic support on pullbacks.

Stochastic is on the way up from the midline but has some room before hitting overbought territory, so bulls may still have enough gas to push through resistance. RSI is also climbing and has yet to reach overbought levels, keeping the door open for a further push higher before exhaustion sets in.

If crude oil manages to break above the triangle’s upper boundary, this could confirm a bullish resolution to the pattern, potentially fueling a measured move rally roughly equal to the height of the formation, which could put the $105 to $110 area in focus over the medium term.

On the other hand, failure to clear this resistance could mean another leg down within the range, with a break below the rising trend line raising the risk of a bearish resolution instead. Geopolitical developments could continue to push oil prices around, though the FOMC minutes also pose an event risk.