Gold Flat After PCE Shows Inflation Progress Has Stalled

Gold futures were little changed to finish the holiday-shortened trading week as the financial markets ostensibly shrugged off the latest inflation report. The yellow metal performed well this past week and will record a monthly gain. But gold’s near-term trend might be flat in the coming sessions as labor data will be the chief catalyst next week.

August gold futures tumbled $2.80, or 0.12%, to $2,363.70 per ounce at 14:32 GMT on Friday on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold prices are on track for a weekly increase of 1.2% and will post a May boost of about 2.3%. Year-to-date, gold prices are up 14%.

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Silver, the sister commodity to gold, continued its slide toward $31 to end the trading week. July silver futures fell $0.119, or 0.38%, to $31.415 per ounce. The white metal will enjoy a weekly gain of nearly 3% and a monthly surge of more than 17%.

All eyes were on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.

In April, the PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and was flat at 2.7%. Core PCE, which strips the volatile energy and food components, jumped at a lower-than-expected pace of 0.2% and was flat at 2.8%.

The consensus was that the PCE confirmed the progress on inflation has stalled, and the last mile in the inflation battle will be a slow endeavor. As a result, the US central bank could keep interest rates higher for longer.

In other economic data on Friday, personal income rose 0.3% last month and personal spending edged up at a lower-than-expected 0.2%.

Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, crashed to its lowest level since the second quarter of 2022, showing that the city’s economic activity has come to a screeching halt.

The US Treasury market was mostly red across the board, with the benchmark ten-year yield slipping below 4.5%. The two-year yield fell 5.2 basis points to 4.877%, while the 30-year bond dropped 5.2 basis points to 4.633%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measurement of the buck against a basket of currencies, slumped 0.29% to 104.42, from an opening of 104.72.

A weaker buck is typically bullish for dollar-denominated commodities because it makes it cheaper for foreign investors to purchase.

In other metal markets, July copper futures declined $0.0315, or 0.68%, to $4.627 per pound. July platinum futures added $7.80, or 0.75%, to $1,045.80 an ounce. July palladium futures tumbled $6.20, or 0.65%, to $952.50 per ounce.

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