EUR/USD wobbled in the week of post-Brexit, however, essentially did not go far away. Some more PMIs and the postponed European Central Bank meeting minutes are eyed. Will EUR/USD select a new direction? Look at here for this week highlights and technical analysis update for EUR/USD.
After the decision of Britain to leave the European Union in the week, few doubts were there that this would virtually occur and this also provided some support to the euro. Generally, things appear tranquil and the European Central Bank is not in any rush for acting which is different from the Bank of England. This gives the support for the currency which is common. Spanish politics stay dirty after the elections, however, there are some expectations for a stable government. In the euro-area, Inflation bordered up to 0.1%. Also, both of the two events support the euro. Final GDP in the US beat the expectations a little but the Fed is in no rush for raising the rates.
Updates:
July 5, 2016; 16:22 :- Three markets – Three entirely unique Brexit reactions – MM#108 :- We started by examining the reactions of the market to Brexit, this time with few perspective and three entirely unique reactions. We…
July 5, 2016; 9:17 :- GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, and XAUUSD TA – July 5, 2016 :- Daily Analysis of EURUSD EURUSD (1.113) : Forex EURUSD is discern pulling back after bordering higher yesterday. Having…
July 4, 2016; 23:12 :- EUR/USD : En-route to 1.05 in 3M; Market for keeping selling rallies – Credit Suisse :- EUR/USD is clashing with Brexit and there is a lot more potential to the downside. And…
July 4, 2016; 11:26 :- Why EUR should be supported? What would make EUR fall? – Morgan Stanley :- EUR/USD has been comparatively stable after the beginning Brexit shock. What is…
July 4, 2016; 9:32 :- GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, and XAUUSD TA – July 4, 2016 :- Daily Analysis of EURUSD EURUSD (1.113) : Having…
Daily Chart of EUR/USD with resistance and support lines on it.
1. Spanish Unemployment Change
Mon, 7:00 : This per month labor market gauge where the rate of unemployment is the highest is the best barometer for the entire continent. The fourth largest economy in the zone saw that in May, the number of unemployed drop by 119.8K at the starting of the season of tourism. 74.3K is an another fall which is on the cards now.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence
Mon, 8:30 : This investors survey advanced to 9.9 points which are the highest since December. For July, a slide to 8.1 points is on the cards.
3. PPI
Mon, 9:00 : The prices of producer lastly feed into the prices of the consumer. In April, prices dropped by 0.3% and now, we could see a bounce of 0.3%.
4. Services PMIs
Tue : Markit releases the data for Spain at 7:15, for Italy at 7:45, for the final French figure at 7:50, for the final German number at 7:55 and for the final euro-zone number at 8:00. Spain saw the development of robust in its sector of services in May with 55.4 points which are above the fifty point threshold separating contraction and expansion. 55.2 score is expected for June. On the contrary, Italy suffered from little contraction with 49.8 points. 50.3 is now predicted. For France, the beginning read for June demonstrated a weak 49.9 points. Germany then contrasted that with 53.2 and the entire euro-zone with 52.4. These three numbers will probably be confirmed in the final read.
5. Retail Sales
Tue, 9:00 : Despite being released after the French as well as German numbers, this figure now still moves markets. In April, a flat read was seen and 0.6% advance is now on the cards.
6. German Factory Orders
Wed, 6:00 : Factory orders in the largest economy of continent dropped by 2%. In this mutable indicator, a bounce back is expected with +1.1%.
7. Retail PMI
Wed, 8:10 : In May, the sector of retail returned to growth, the growth of albeit weak with 50.6 points. The pointer of Markit is not anticipated for showing considerable improvement this time.
8. German Industrial Production
Thurs, 6:00 : In April, the locomotive enjoyed the growth of the continent in industrial output with 0.8%. An increase of 0.1% is now on the cards.
9. French Trade Balance
Thurs, 6:45 : France suffers a deficit of trade in contrast to Germany. In April, a wide deficit of 5.2 billion was seen. The same figure: -4.8 billion is now on the cards.
10. ECB Meeting Minutes
Thurs, 11:30 : From last week, this is postponed. From the meeting of its June, the ECB releases minutes, when the ECB did not announce the new measures but they explained the corporate bond buying implementation and the new TLTROs. They also provided new forecasts in that meeting, which were not too optimistic. The minutes can show how members, which are worried really are in regard to their inflation mandate. Also, it can expose the internal debate. If we get the details about the view of the members on the Brexit potential, then what could be much more interesting.
11. German Trade Balance
Fri, 6:00 : In April, the surplus of Germany expanded to twenty-four billion but that was mainly because of in imports fall. A deficit which is narrower of 22.3 billion is probably now.
12. French Industrial Production
Fri, 6:45 : In the continent, the second largest economy enjoyed a bounce in output 1.2% in April. Now, a slide could be seen with -0.4%. Also, note that the government of French publishes its balance of budget at the similar time.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
EUR/USD begin the week with a mini weekend gap, however, recovered and lastly settled up the 1.1070 level.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
In May 2016, a stepping stone – 1.1535 is seen and also in advance which is followed by the 1.15 round level.
In 2015, 1.1460 was a key resistance line and thousand up the lows of multi-year. In early June, 1.1410 has been capped the pair. In February, 1.1375 worked like resistance and in May 2016, like support.
1.1335 just worked like the lower bound of a higher range and capped the attempts of recovery in May. After the fall in May, 1.1230 capped the pair and works like resistance.
In the fall of mid-May, 1.1175 was the low point. In October, 1.1140 cushioned the pair. 1.1070 served like a very clear ranges separator during February and also in advance.
1.10 is a considerable resistance and round number. In June, the swing low seen is 1.0905 and serves like weak support. In early March 2015, 1.0825 worked like support and should be watched also. Now, this is a triple bottom.
Draghi low 1.0780 post interchanges the 1.08 as support. The next support line is 1.0710 on the chart after capping the pair temporarily in April 2015.
Further down, the 2016 low of 1.0520 and the 2015 low of 1.0460 provide support further.