Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM) stock fell 1.40% (As on January 13, 11:15:53 AM UTC-4, Source: Google Finance) after Mizuho downgraded the company to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $175, down from $200, citing rising risks tied to Apple. Mizuho’s estimates are now below consensus, as it sees headwinds to Qualcomm’s handset shipments and iPhone content in 2026. A potential slowdown in smartphone spending put pressure on Qualcomm shares, as analysts warned that weaker demand from a key customer could weigh on growth. The brokerage said softer global handset demand, along with Apple’s push to design more components in-house, may limit Qualcomm’s upside over the next few years.
Mizuho expects Apple’s smartphone unit sales to fall roughly 8% in 2026 as consumers turn more price conscious. A higher-priced foldable iPhone, which could arrive later in the year, may also delay typical upgrade cycles. The firm estimated Apple contributed about $8.8 billion to Qualcomm revenue in fiscal 2025. A shift away from Qualcomm modems could place roughly $3 billion of that business at risk, according to the analysts.
Mizuho is positive on most of the rest of the sector, at least in the first-half of the year, as the artificial intelligence spending trade is set to continue. “We see potential for a strong 1H26E as AI spend, [wafer fab equipment] and memory cycles all expected to remain strong, powering tier1/2 CSP, enterprise/sovereign AI server ramps,” Mizuho analysts wrote in a note to clients. “Into 2H26E, we see potential challenges with 1) higher volatility around new product launches/ramps with Rubin/ MI400, 2) US midterm elections (11/3/2026), and 3) slower Fed rate cuts.”
Meanwhile, Qualcomm has taken another big step into robotics, rolling out a full-stack architecture designed to scale from household service robots to full-size humanoids. Announced at CES, the new approach combines hardware, software and AI into what the company calls a deployable “brain of the robot.” Qualcomm is also putting heavy emphasis on ecosystem. The company is working with partners such as Advantech, Booster, Figure, Kuka Robotics, Robotec.ai and VinMotion to bring robotics platforms to market at scale. The Dragonwing industrial processor roadmap already powers humanoid robots from companies including Booster and VinMotion, and Qualcomm says it is in discussions with Kuka Robotics on next-generation solutions. The latest processor in the roadmap is the Qualcomm Dragonwing IQ10 Series, positioned as a premium-tier robotics processor for industrial AMRs and full-size humanoids.