Shopify Inc (NASDAQ:SHOP) FCF Declines

Shopify Inc (NASDAQ:SHOP) stock plummets 10.52% (As on February 12, 11:20:02 AM UTC-4, Source: Google Finance) after the company posted mixed result for the fourth quarter of FY25. Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) in the fourth quarter was $123.84 billion, which increased 31.1% year over year. Offline GMV increased 29% year over year while B2B GMV jumped 84%. International GMV grew 50% year over year, with Europe’s GMV rising 45% year over year (35% on a constant currency basis). Merchant solutions revenues in the fourth quarter were $2.89 billion and accounted for 78.8% of Shopify’s total revenues. On a year-over-year basis, merchant revenues increased 34.9%, driven by strong GMV and increased penetration of Shopify payments. Subscription solutions revenues in the fourth quarter were $777 million and accounted for 21.2% of Shopify’s total revenues. On a year-over-year basis, subscription solutions revenues increased 16.7%. Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) in the fourth quarter was $205 million, which increased 15.2% on a year-over-year basis. As of Dec. 31, 2025, Shopify had cash and cash equivalents (including marketable securities) worth $5.78 billion compared with $6.35 billion as of Sept. 30. Free cash flow increased 17% year over year to $715 million. The free cash flow margin contracted 230 bps year over year to 19.5% in the reported quarter.

Moreover, in the fourth quarter of 2025, gross profit was $1.69 billion, up 25.2% year over year. Gross margin contracted 200 basis points (bps) year over year to 46.1% due to unfavorable mix shift from Subscription Solutions to Merchant Solutions and strong results from the low-margin payments business.

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SHOP in the fourth quarter of FY25 has reported the adjusted earnings per share of 38 cents, missing the analysts’ estimates for the adjusted earnings per share by 7.32%, according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The company had reported the adjusted revenue growth of 31 percent to $3.67 billion in the fourth quarter of FY25, beating the analysts’ estimates for revenue by 2.55%. SHOP reported an adjusted operating income of $760 million, up 29.9% year over year. Operating margin contracted 10 bps year over year to 20.7%

For the first quarter of 2026, Shopify expects revenues to grow at a low-30% rate on a year-over-year basis. Gross profit is anticipated to grow at a high-20% rate on a year-over-year basis.  Free cash flow margin is expected to be in the low-to-mid teens, slightly below Q1 2025.

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