Natural gas broke down from its longer-term ascending trend line that had connected the higher lows since mid-August, confirming a shift in short-term momentum after price stalled just under the $3.013 swing high.

The breakdown accelerated selling pressure that dragged the commodity all the way down to the $2.751 area before buyers stepped in to defend that floor. Now that a bounce is underway, the Fibonacci retracement tool drawn from the $3.013 high to the $2.751 low highlights where sellers could return to defend the broken trend line as new resistance.

The 38.2% Fib lines up at $2.851, followed by the 50% level at $2.882, both of which sit just under the broken trend line and could cap the recovery. A stronger push higher could reach the 61.8% Fib at $2.913, which lines up closely with the 100 SMA and would likely be the line in the sand for the pullback.

On the moving average front, the 100 SMA has crossed below the 200 SMA, which points to weakening upside momentum or the possibility that the broader trend is turning lower. Price is still trading below both indicators, so these could reinforce resistance on any pullback attempt.

Stochastic recently dipped into oversold territory and is now curling higher, reflecting a return of bullish pressure after sellers pushed the oscillator to its limit. Still, there’s ample room to climb before reaching overbought conditions, meaning the recovery could have some legs before buyers lose steam.

RSI tells a similar story, having turned higher from the lower half of its range, giving buyers room to keep pushing before the oscillator flags exhaustion.

Overall, with price attempting to reclaim the broken trend line from below, the reaction at the Fibonacci resistance cluster between $2.851 and $2.913 could determine whether natural gas resumes its slide toward new lows or stages a more meaningful recovery back above the recent range.