U.S dollar index long-term technical analysis

The index has been the talk this year as it slumped and stay at low. This event mostly caused by “priced in” expectation on The Fed interest-rate outlook. The market held on to the Fed promise of three interest-rate hikes, and they got it without any surprise. In coming years, market expect little change to the interest-rate while the Fed will surely rewind their low interest-rate policy.

The biggest uncertain factor might come from the political side where the President want privatization and restructuring of the economy. Another thing to consider is the rising tension in the global world following North Korea nuclear issue and Israel capital.

We are in the middle of December, and there is no rally in U.S dollar index yet. It might not happen, and the index might stay inside 93.00 – 94.00 for the rest of month.

New Month

Monthly chart

In November, U.S dollar index slipped and released all of its October gains. Fortunately, the index closed at 93.00 which is a “safe” point. As long as the bull maintain the position above 93.00, there is a chance for the future bounce. Looking at the chart, it looks like the index building floor at 93.00 and waiting for a chance for launch.

Weekly chart

There is no winner yet on the weekly chart. The index is moving back and forth 93.00 – 94.00 without decisive close outside the range. However, bullish reason stack slowly on the chart:

The index currently supported by weekly SMA 200 and could continue its challenge upside.
A higher low printed on the chart.

Daily chart

Latest reaction near 94.00 resistance level send U.S dollar index down. The bull contained the bearish move at 93.30 – 93.40 and reversed the index direction. If U.S dollar index could break above 94.00 by the end of the month, traders might see it rallying in January.