USDX (USD Index)
We indicate U.S dollar have more chance for a bullish breakout on Friday, and it has happened which lead US dollar index closed near its apparent resistance area between $95.6 – $95.8. Judging from the momentum, we think it is possible that price will take a breather and then strike the resistance area again. If price cannot close inside the area today, we will see a drop to 95.4 – 95.5.
The weekly candle might show us more reliable information, and last week candle is bullish harami candle/inside bar formation. As long as the price cannot go above 95.8, then the bear is in control.
News to watch
There is no significant news today, for full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week August 29 to September 2, 2016
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
EUR/USD deflected from 1.1300 – 1.1400 area, also if you take a look at the chart, its rejected from black trend line shown. Currently, price sitting at the top range of previously broken area, will it try to bounce again and retain its advantage against the dollar?
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1150, 1.1130, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1240, 1.1300, 1.1350
GBP/USD
Initially up when Yellen speech, GBP/USD experienced a hard setback too as other USD pairs experienced. Touching 1.3276 it reverse sharply without paused until it reached 1.3120. Price keep going lower, and we see 1.3070 as a stopper for bear if price able to arrive at that level. Meanwhile bull still there as long as 1.3030 low not taken out.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.3070, 1.3030, 1.3000
Resistance: 1.3120, 1.3176, 1.3200, 1.3276
USD/JPY
USD/JPY chart is the most interesting chart to analyze today, we have a lower close below trend line on Friday which confirms failure of ascending triangle pattern, but this happened before Yellen speech.
Most traders thought it was the best time to short, but finally, USD/JPY jumped up after Yellen speech just to break every USD/JPY bear. Is technical analysis faulty? I would say no because we have a range of 100 – 100.50 in USD/JPY, and as long as price not closing below 100 it is still probably moving in range. Another point is no pattern is valid near the high impact news. Most of the time we need to wait until the dust settled, sometimes we can jump the wagon.
USD/JPY might move sideway until BOJ official announcement about additional monetary policies.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 102.00, 101.5
Resistance: 102.40, 102.90
AUD/USD
AUD/USD reversed at trend line and closed below 0.7600, and Bull want a close above 0.7600 soon, or it will come down to next support around 0.7500 – 0.7510
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7510, 0.7500
Resistance: 0.7580, 0.7600, 0.7610