The price has increased sharply today and is very close to erase the Friday’s losses, the USD is losing ground versus all its rivals because the US dollar index has retreated today, the USDX has found strong resistance again and could drop to retest an important support before will bounce back again. Technically the price could jump much higher in the coming days because is located above an important confluence area, right now is pressuring an important static resistance level (0.7324), only a breakout above this level will confirm the bounce back movement.

We had a poor economic calendar today, but the Kiwi has received a helping hand from the Westpac Consumer Sentiment has increased from 106.0 points to 108.0 points, has reached the highest level of the last 2-months.

The price is still trapped inside of the ascending pitchfork’s body, has come down to retest the lower median line (LML) of the pitchfork, actually we have a strong confluence area here at the intersection of the lower median line (LML) of the ascending pitchfork with the uptrend line (Rising Wedge support) and with the upper median line (uml) of the descending pitchfork. The perspective remains bullish as long as the price is trading above the lower median line (LML)  and as long as the Rising Wedge remains intact.

The rate should  ignore the 0.7324 resistance, a breakout above this obstacle, followed by a consolidation, will attract more buyers, which will drive the rate toward the new highs, we’ll have a first target at 150% Fibonacci line (descending dotted line).

Personally I’m expecting to see the rate lower in the coming weeks because most likely the rate will escape from the Rising Wedge pattern, we could have a short rebound before the rate will start a larger decrease, we’ll have a selling opportunity if the rate will slip again inside the descending pitchfork, but we’ll have to wait for a valid breakout, until then the outlook is bullish on the short term, the USD will take the lead again only if the USDX will make new highs.