Coffee Futures Rebound After Tariff-Driven Decline

Coffee futures rebounded to kick off the trading week after declining last week on President Donald Trump’s removal of tariffs on the agricultural commodity. Coffee has been surging amid growing challenges, but it has also added to its gains from US tariffs.

January coffee futures rose $0.0105, or 0.28%, to $3.776 per pound at 15:51 GMT on Monday on the US ICE Futures exchange. Coffee is coming off a weekly loss of about 0.1% and is down almost 3% in the past month. Year-to-date, coffee prices have rocketed almost 18%.

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January Robusta futures ticked up $0.18, or 0.4%, to $4,471.00 per metric ton. Robusta, which is used in instant coffee rather than roast and ground blends, also slumped 0.6% last week, adding to this year’s losses of about 11%.

US retail coffee prices have soared 40% year over year.

After the administration announced the president would remove the 40% tariffs on imports of Brazilian agricultural products, coffee prices tanked. The South American country supplies about one-third of the US market, which is the world’s largest coffee consumer.

Despite the trade policy changes, the coffee market remains in deficit as output continues to fall short of expectations, particularly in Brazil.

Farmers in key growing areas continue to face drought conditions, leading to shortfalls and lower-than-expected yields.

“(⁠We) need the market to digest this.​ More downside? Maybe, but I do ​not believe we’ll go below $3/lb. If anything, I would be a buyer into whatever market dip comes from this news,”‍ said a Europe-based trader at a top global coffee trade house, according to Reuters.

In other agricultural commodities, January corn futures were little changed at $4.3725 per bushel. January wheat futures erased $0.0475, or 0.88%, to $5.35 a bushel. January soybean futures slid $0.0375, or 0.33%, to $11.21 a bushel.

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