USDX (USD Index)

The index made recovery from 96.10 and manage to close above SMA 200. In the previous day, the index maintained another close above the averages. Today there is further bearish reaction but no movement above the previous day high yet. Will the index continue higher and test the top of the bearish channel? Alternatively, will it slip below SMA 200 once again and continue the bearish movement inside the channel?

News to watch

08.15 AM U.S ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, forecast 140k

10.00 AM U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, forecast 56.1

For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 1-5 July 2019

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is under trouble after the pair could not lift up above 1.1300. Initially, the pair could climb above 1.1300 but at the end of the day, it starts to descend and close near its opening level. Today, there is bearish follow-through below previous day low. If the bear could secure a close below the low then we could expect further weakness in EUR/USD.

today critical levels to watch:

Support: 1.1280, 1.1200

Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1360, 1.1500

GBP/USD

The weakness of GBP/USD continues after the close below 1.2625 yesterday. The pair show no bullish sign and expected to continue bearish movement inside the bearish channel. At the current time, traders might want to stay short or enter short positions near 1.2625 when retest happen.

Today Critical level to watch:

Support: 1.2500

Resistance: 1.2625, 1.2800, 1.3000

USD/JPY

USD/JPY erased all of the gain incurred in Monday trading session. The pair fell with strong bearish momentum and there is bearish follow-through by the bear today. We expect the pair to test the level near 107.00 – 107.40 before it could bounce upward. Traders could look for long positions near the support area.

Today critical levels to watch:

Support: 107.40, 107.00

Resistance: 108.00, 108.50, 109.00

AUD/USD

The rejection from top of the channel formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the AUD/USD chart. However, the bearish pattern has not confirmed yet. The pair bounced from the trendline in the previous trading day. At the current time, the pair stick near 0.7000 and waiting for a reaction. Will the pair rejected from 0.7000 and continue lower? Alternatively, will it breakout higher above 0.7000 and the top of the channel?

Today critical levels to watch:

Support: 0.6900

Resistance: 0.7000