USDX (USD Index)

U.S dollar index finally reached the target level 97.50 and show a bearish reaction. It is a normal reaction at the resistance after seventh consecutive bullish closes. At the current time, the index hanging near the resistance level and waiting for a clue on the next direction. If the index corrected lower then traders could watch 96.70 as possible bounce level.

News to watch

08.30 AM U.S Core Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.4% increase

Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.0%

For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 11-15 March 2019

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

EUR/USD could not shake the bearish pressure and fell below 1.1300 support level. The downward movement brought the pair to close near the bottom of its bearish channel. Although it closed as bullish candlestick at the end of the week, the pair expected to continue its bearish movement.

Currently, the bull brings the pair up and looks will test the 1.1300 – 1.1360 area. Short positions near the area might be one of the good choice traders could take.

Today critical levels to watch:

Support: 1.1200

Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1360, 1.1400

GBP/USD

GBP/USD closed the week below 1.3000 and the SMA 200. It is a bearish sign and followed by lower opening this week. The pair could continue lower and reach the bottom of the red channel before bounce happen. However, if the pair could climb above SMA 200 and close the week above it then GBP/USD might start new bullish leg.

Today Critical level to watch:

Support: 1.2800, 1.2625

Resistance: 1.3000, 1.3125, 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3330

USD/JPY

The pair closed below SMA 200 after rejection from 112.00 resistance. It is now expected to trade between SMA 200 and support 110.50 before next momentum movement. The overall trend is bullish which suggest long positions better than short positions.

Today critical levels to watch:

Support: 111.00, 110.50, 110.00

Resistance: 112.00

AUD/USD

AUD/USD stalled at the bottom of its bearish channel and produce a bullish candlestick at the end of the week. The bullish close is not significant as it closed inside Thursday candlestick range. Today, there is bullish pressure but still contained inside Friday range. We do not expect AUD/USD will start a long-term bullish trend but if the pair moving up then blue trendline will become the level to watch for short positions.

Today critical levels to watch:

Support: 0.7000

Resistance: 0.7080, 0.7160, 0.7200