While the pound continued its downward trend because of the uncertainty caused by Britain’s exit from the European Union, the economic news slated for release next week include the UK interest rate decision, Canada’s interest rate announcement, the US and Australian employment data and the US consumer and inflation data. These data are likely to have a significant impact on the price movements in the forex market in the coming week.

The US monthly non-farm payrolls data released last week surprised markets. The job gain in June 2016 was 287,000 and it exceeded predicted increase of 175,000 jobs. However, the job gain for May was revised down to 11,000. Further, the unemployment rate was higher than expected. It rose to 4.9 percent from 4.7 percent in May. Wages rose 2.6 percent on year-on-year basis.

News Highlights for the Week July 11 to 15, 2016

Canada’s Rate decision (07/13/2016 Wednesday 14:00 GMT)

As warned by the Bank of Canada at the monthly meeting for policy decisions, the harsh wildfires raging in the northern Alberta and Saskatchewan areas will negatively impact Canada’s GDP in the second quarter. However, the central bank may not change its monetary policy as it expects the economy to revive in the following quarter. The interest was cut down to 0.5 percent from 0.75 percent exactly a year ago.

US Crude Oil Inventory Report (07/13/2016 Wednesday 14:00 GMT)

The crude oil inventories report released last week showed that reserves fell by as much as 2.2 million barrels, more than the analysts’ prediction of 2.1million barrels. Crude oil stocks have declined for seven weeks now. Oil prices dropped as much as 5 percent and hit a two-month low after a report published by the U.S. government showed a disappointing weekly crude oil draw. The market was expecting a larger decline in reserves.

Australian Employment data (07/14/2016 Thursday 1:30 GMT)

Australia’s employment market added 17,900 jobs (more than economists’ expectation of 14,900) after adding 10,800 jobs in the previous month. The unemployment rate and the participated rate remained unchanged at 5.7 percent and 64.8 percent, respectively. The job addition was mostly in the part-time work sector. Full-time positions remained unchanged. Economists expect that 10,100 jobs would be added and the unemployment rate would rise to 5.8 percent in the next report.

UK Rate decision (07/14/2016 Thursday 11:00 GMT)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England again decided to maintain the interest rate at 0.5 percent for the 87the month after the last change. In the first quarter of 2016, inflation and GDP growth declined to 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. Following the vote on England’s exit from the European Union, economists anticipate that the BoE will cut the interest rate to 0.25 percent, a record low, for boosting economic activity. Mark Carney, BoE Governor, has hinted that the bank would provide stimulus measures in the wake of the negative impact caused by the UK referendum.

US Producer Prices Index (07/14/2016 Thursday 12:30 GMT)

Producer prices rose 0.4 percent in May following an increase in the price of energy products and services. However, a stronger dollar weighed down inflation. On year-over-year basis, the PPI declined 0.1 percent after the index remained flat in April. On the other hand, energy prices increased 2.8 percent in May after recording a 0.1 percent growth in the previous month. Core PPI rose by 0.8 percent on year-over-year basis in May. In the report to be published next week, economists expect that the PPI would increase by 0.3 percent.

US Unemployment Claims (07/14/2016 Thursday 12:30 GMT)

In the Last week, jobless claims decreased by 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted figure of 254,000. Analysts’ expectation was 269,000. With this the jobless claim has remained below the threshold level of 300,000 for the 70th straight week. The four-week moving average, as far as the new claims are concerned, dropped by 2,500 to 264,750. On the other hand, continuing jobless claims decreased by 44,000 to a seasonally adjusted figure of 2.124 million. Analysts expect that the jobless claims would be 263,000 this week.

China GDP Data (07/15/2016 Friday 2:00 GMT)

The second largest economy in the world is scheduled to publish the first and final GDP data following the end of the previous quarter. However, there is a lot of doubt about the accuracy of the data. In the first quarter, China’s economy grew 6.7 percent annually. It is expected that the growth would have slowed slightly to 6.6 percent, which is within the government’s target.

US Inflation Data (07/15/2016 Friday 12:30 GMT)

In May, the consumer prices eased a little, but housing and healthcare costs remained strong. Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent after recording an increase of 0.4 percent in April. On year-on-year basis CPI increased 0.1 percent following the 1.1 percent spike in the previous month. In May, analysts’ expectation was 0.3 percent increase on month-on-month basis and 1.1 percent on year-on-year basis. According to the Fed, interest rates would continue unchanged and inflation would remain below their target through 2017. Economists don’t expect the Fed to continue with its plans to hike the interest rates. It is expected that the CPI and Core CPI would rise 0.2% in June.

US Retail Sales (07/15/2016 Friday 12:30 GMT)

Retail sales increased 0.5 percent (more than the 0.4 percent increase expected by economists) in May after it rose 1.3 percent in the previous month. This is a good sign because an increase in consumer spending can boost the economy in the second quarter. Core sales, which excludes volatile categories like food services, home-improvement stores, auto dealers and service stations, improved 0.4 percent in May. In the previous month, core sales increased 1 percent, recording the biggest increase in two years. Retail sales and core sales are expected to rise 0.1 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, in June.

US UoM Consumer Sentiment (07/15/2016 Friday 14:00 GMT)

According to the UoM Consumer Sentiment survey result published in June, Americans were satisfied with the U.S. economy’s current state. However, the sentiment was not so as regards the future. Consumer sentiment index dropped to 94.3 in June from 94.7 reported in May. However, the current conditions index rose to an 11-year high because of gains in wages. This survey has a drawback. Consumers do not think that the strength of the US economy is the same as that of last year and do not anticipate a GDP growth like the last year. It is expected that the US economy will expand in the second quarter, but the indications of a slowdown in the labor market due to poor jobs growth in June is a matter of concern. Further, inflation has failed to touch the 2 percent annual target of the Fed for the last four years. However, policy makers are of the opinion that price growth will gain strength in the coming months and years. In July, consumer sentiment index is expected to be at 93.7.