The NZD/USD has changed little today, we had some volatility, but looks undecided right now also because the currency traders are waiting for the RBNZ. The price has touched new highs in the yesterday’s trading session, but unfortunately the buyers weren’t strong enough to maintain the rate higher and now is consolidating right below a very strong resistance area.

We could have high volatility in the coming hours on the NZD/USD , so you should be careful not to suffer a heavy loss, anything could happen during the RBNZ. The perspective remains bullish on the short term, the rate could increase further, only a huge disappointment could force the currency pair to start another leg lower.

As you already know, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish the Official Cash Rate later, the rate is expected to remain steady at 1.75%. Personally, I don’t believe that the RBNZ will take action again so soon. The Kiwi continues to stay higher even if the Official Cash Rate was cut three times in the last year, a hawkish speech will send the rate towards new highs, but maybe will be better to stay away from this pair in the coming hours, most likely the RBNZ Press Conference will bring high volatility.

You can see that the price hovers right below the 0.7324 static resistance and below the confluence area formed at the intersection between the first warning line (WL1) of the descending pitchfork with the 250% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line between the wl1 and the wl2). Is somehow expected to increase further after the breakout above the short downtrend line, we’ll have a confirmation that the price will resume the upside movement only when will jump and will stabilize above the warning line (WL1) and above the 0.7324 horizontal resistance.

Another drop could come only if we’ ll have dovish speech tonight and if the rate will drop and will stabilize below the second warning line (wl2) of the previous ascending pitchfork, this scenario is less likely to happen right now, only the fundamental factors could reverse the price at this moment.