U.S dollar index long-term technical analysis
The global market situation gradually turn better early this year after the pause of trade wars, followed by the postponement of tariff on China imported goods to the U.S. The Fed also put hold on the interest-rate increase which helped the market.
The series of the event put U.S dollar index under pressure. However, the situation slowly turns bullish this month. Failed negotiation between U.S-North Korea, China slashed growth projection this year. Both spell fear to the market and incite rally in U.S dollar index. If the situation continues then we might have the index rally into the second quarter.
New Month
Monthly chart
U.S dollar index bounced from 95.50 in February and tested the level near 97.50 before turned lower. The index previously broke below its bullish trendline and could not return above it in February. This month, the bull set the tone by pushing the index higher. It will test the trendline and 97.50 resistance soon. Will the index close above 97.50 by the end of the month?
Weekly chart
We can see correction on the U.S dollar index weekly chart. In the previous week, the correction brought the index down to test WSMA 200. There was bounce and lead the index back near its opening level. This week, the index follow through by moving further higher. Judging from the index movement, we might see it hanging near 97.50 the end of this week or next week.
Daily chart
On the daily chart, the U.S dollar index broke above red trendline and made retest on it before bounced. The bounce from trendline creates bullish streak which lasted until today. There is nothing to stop current bullish pressure yet and it is better to continue to ride the bullish wave until strong reversal pattern formed.
Trade plan (For U.S dollar pair)
U.S dollar index look will continue its upward stride and reach 97.50 resistance. At the current time, it is better to continue holding U.S dollar long position and wait for the reaction near resistance. If there is a strong bearish pattern when the test happens, traders could enter U.S dollar short positions.