US Dollar Index (DXY) Weakens After Soft September Jobs Report Trims October Rate Hike Bets

The US dollar weakened modestly at the end of the trading week following a soft September jobs report. The greenback had been trending higher heading into the weekend on expectations of a back-to-back interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, but weak payrolls data may have delayed an increase.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the buck against a weighted basket of currencies, fell 0.17% to 101.93, from an opening of 102.10, the highest level in three months.

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It posted a weekly gain of about 1% and is up 3.7% year-to-date.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added just 29,000 new jobs last month, from a downwardly revised 133,000 in August.

This came in firmly below economists’ expectations of 90,000.

The unemployment rate ticked up for the first time since June, rising to 4.2%. This was slightly above the consensus forecast of 4.1%.

While inflation has been the Fed’s primary focus, potential downside risks to the labor market could force the US central bank to hit the pause button on a possible rate increase later this month.

Futures markets are now betting on an 83% chance that the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged in the current target range of 3.75% to 4%. But traders see a 65% chance of a quarter-point rate hike in December.

“For the Fed, this number should be the nail in the coffin for an October hike,” Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies, said in a note, according to CNBC.

“The payroll data surged in August, and we had expected the momentum to continue this month, given the historically low prints on jobless claims in recent weeks,” he added. “However, it now appears that the August number was nothing more than a rebound from very weak hiring in June and July.”

Yields on US Treasury securities were down across the board following the September jobs report before rebounding throughout the session.

The benchmark ten-year Treasury bond yield topped 5.28%, while the 30-year firmed above 5.63%.

The USD/CAD currency pair surged 0.24% to 1.4256, from an opening of 1.4225. The EUR/USD jumped 0.1% to 1.1254, from an opening of 1.1245.

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