EURNZD is trading inside a range visible on its 4-hour chart, finding support at the 1.6130 level and resistance at 1.6320. Price is closing in on the range resistance and might be due for a bounce.

The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that resistance is more likely to hold than to break. In that case, EURNZD could bounce back to the bottom of the range once more.

The top of the range is also near the 200 SMA at the 1.6300 major psychological mark, adding to its strength as a ceiling.

RSI is heading higher to show that buyers are in control for now, but the oscillator is approaching overbought conditions to signal potential exhaustion. Turning lower would confirm that sellers are taking over.

Stochastic already turned lower from the overbought zone to indicate that selling pressure is ready to pick up.

The RBNZ hiked interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% as expected, but this was considered a dovish hike since the central bank indicated they might not tighten again anytime soon. Policymakers expect inflation to peak in the fourth quarter of this year before turning lower around mid-2022.

The central bank also noted that “We assess employment as being above its maximum sustainable level, with many of our labour market indicators near or at record levels” The unemployment rate dipped to a record low of 3.4% which the RBNZ deemed as lower than sustainable.

Even so, the RBNZ projects that the cash rate might reach 2.00% by the end of 2022 and raised the OCR track to 2.6%, but this was lower than the consensus at 3.0%. Continued improvements in data and sustained gains in price levels might still mean some upside for the Kiwi, though.