AUDUSD Trend Line Break and Reversal

AUDUSD fell through its ascending trend line on the hourly time frame, signaling that a reversal from the uptrend is underway. Price might still pull back to the broken support before resuming the slide.

The Fibonacci retracement tool shows additional levels where sellers might be waiting. The 38.2% Fib is close by near the .6600 major psychological mark while the 50% level is near the dynamic inflection points at the moving averages.

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The line in the sand for a bearish pullback is the 61.8% Fib at .6635 near the former trend line. A break above this could suggest that the uptrend is resuming.

Stochastic is still pointing up to suggest that bullish pressure is present, and the oscillator is nearing the overbought zone to signal exhaustion among buyers. Turning lower would confirm that sellers are returning and could push AUDUSD down to the lows at .6544 or lower.

RSI has room to climb before reflecting overbought conditions, so the correction could keep going until it does.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA for now, but the gap between the moving averages has narrowed enough to reflect slowing bullish momentum and a potential crossover. If that happens, more sellers could join in the reversal.

AUDUSD is on weaker footing after the ISM services PMI came in stronger than expected at 52.7 versus the projected 52.2 figure, reflecting a faster pace of industry growth. Also note that the RBA kept interest rates on hold as expected in their latest statement.

The US dollar could keep taking cues from leading jobs indicators ahead of the NFP release this Friday. Manufacturing PMI figures have been pointing to another contraction in hiring, but the ADP and Challenger reports might still sway expectations.

Analysts are projecting a 179K increase in hiring for November, higher than the earlier 150K gain and enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 3.9%.

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