AUD/JPY Ascending Trend Line Correction

AUDJPY has formed higher lows connected by a rising trend line on its hourly time frame, with the pair in the middle of a correction and closing in on the Fibonacci retracement levels.

The 38.2% Fib is near the 94.50 minor psychological mark, which could already be enough to attract buyers and sustain the rally back up to the swing high at 95.75. A larger correction could still reach the 50% Fib that coincides with the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point at 94.15 or the 61.8% Fib closer to the trend line at 93.77.

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The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the uptrend is more likely to gain traction from here. The gap between the indicators is also widening to reflect strengthening bullish momentum.

Stochastic is on the move up to confirm that buyers are in control, and the oscillator has room to climb before reaching the overbought zone to signal exhaustion so price could keep following suit. RSI, on the other hand, appears to be heading south to show that sellers have the upper hand or that the correction could keep going until oversold conditions are met.

AUDJPY could take cues from Australia’s jobs release, as a slower pace of hiring is eyed for February, possibly weighing on the RBA’s relatively optimistic stance. However, stronger than expected results could reinforce the view that the Australian central bank could pause with its easing cycle soon.

Meanwhile, the BOJ just announced its decision to keep rates on hold for the time being while keeping the door open for further tightening. The upcoming FOMC statement could also impact market sentiment ahead of the Australian jobs release, as the Fed’s policy bias could influence the outlook for global interest rates.

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