USDX (USD Index)
Today is one of the most important days this month as The Fed will announce an interest-rate decision. The Fed expected to raise interest-rate by 25 bps. The decision might already reflect by U.S dollar index daily chart as the price closed as bullish candlestick in the previous day. The index might continue upside today if the rate increase followed by a hawkish comment.
However, a rate hike followed by dovish comment will slam U.S dollar below the red trendline.
News to watch
10.30 AM U.S Crude Oil Inventories, forecast 2.6 million barrels increase
02.00 PM U.S Federal Funds Rate, forecast 1.75%
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week 19 – 23 Mar 2018
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
The pair closed below 1.2300 with significant distance before The Fed interest-rate decision today. There is buying by the bull, but it might stay below 1.2300. Traders could look for short position near 1.2300 assuming the Fed will proceed with rate-hike and hawkish comment. Quit the position if The Fed take a dovish stance.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.2300, 1.2200, 1.2100
Resistance: 1.2500
GBP/USD
Despite the bullish build up in U.S dollar index, GBP/USD bull did not budge and hold the pair above 1.4000. There is no sign of weakness and traders could expect the pair will continue its upward movement. However, a downward close below 1.4000 will let GBP/USD trading between 1.3835 – 1.4000 once again.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.4000, 1.3850, 1.3835, 1.3800
Resistance: 1.4140
USD/JPY
USD/JPY closed above 106.10 and suggested the pair will continue the range trading between 106.10 – 107.40. Traders will look at the Fed meeting today and see if USD/JPY could continue stay above 106.10.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 106.10, 105.50, 105.00
Resistance: 107.00, 107.40, 109.00
AUD/USD
There is no hope for the bull as AUD/USD continue its descent. The pair reached 0.7690 support level and closed below it. Fortunately, the bull turns into the market and push the price higher. Currently, AUD/USD traded at 0.7704. Depend on today close, AUD/USD short-term trend will be determined by either a close above 0.7690 or below it.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7690, 0.7640
Resistance: 0.7750, 0.7800, 0.7875, 0.7970