NZDUSD has formed higher lows and higher highs to create an ascending channel pattern on its 4-hour time frame. Price is already testing the channel bottom and might be due for a bounce.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, the uptrend is more likely to gain traction than to reverse or support is more likely to hold than to break.

RSI is turning up to indicate that bullish momentum is returning, possibly taking price back to the mid-channel area of interest around the .6800 major psychological mark or all the way to the channel top closer to .6900.

A break below the .6600 handle, on the other hand, could spur a reversal from the climb. Note that the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to reflect weakening bullish momentum.

Dollar pairs could be in for a lot of volatility later in the week as the Fed gears up to make its policy decision and possibly announce an interest rate cut. If they signal scope for another easing move down the line, the dollar could be in for a large drop while higher-yielding currencies like the Kiwi might rally on risk appetite.

There are no major reports due from New Zealand during the week but there is an underlying theme of RBNZ easing as well. Their official rate statement is scheduled for the following week and could hinge on how the quarterly jobs report due earlier on turns out. Note that policymakers have also dropped hints on more rate cuts and the central bank could follow in the footsteps of the RBA in order to preempt economic weakness from trade tensions.