AUDUSD recently fell back below support around the .6540 mark and is bouncing off the lows around .6488. The Fibonacci retracement tool shows that the area of interest lines up with the 50% Fib.

This is also right around the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point which adds to its strength as a ceiling. Price is already testing the 38.2% Fib at .6530 but might still be ready for a larger correction to the 61.8% level in line with the .6555 mark.

The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the selloff is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions or exhaustion among buyers and is starting to turn south to signal a pickup in selling pressure.

RSI has a bit more room to climb before reaching the overbought zone but already seems to be topping out, suggesting that sellers are eager to take over. In that case, AUDUSD could fall back to the lows soon.

AUDUSD might take cues from GDP data, as another meager 0.2% expansion is eyed for the last quarter of 2023. Underlying components such retail sales and export activity are suggesting even weaker results, but private capital expenditure and construction work done suggest stronger business performance.

Upbeat growth data might be enough to keep the RBA hawkish, unlike most of its major central bank peers shifting to a more dovish stance. On the other hand, a disappointing read could reinforce rate cut bets for later in the year.

Meanwhile, the US dollar might take cues from leading jobs indicators ahead of the NFP release on Friday. The ADP non-farm employment change, Challenger job cuts, JOLTS job openings, and ISM services PMI might all impact USD volatility throughout the week.