Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Technical Analysis for July 3, 2018

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Bitcoin has been trading higher for the past couple of days but it isn’t out of the woods yet. Zooming out to the longer-term charts indicates that price is still below the area of interest previously breached and might merely be making a pullback.

Using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 38.2% level is closest to this area of interest around $7,300. Holding as resistance could push bitcoin back to the swing low at $5,650 or lower. A larger pullback could last until the 50% Fib near the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point.

The 100 SMA is safely below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the downtrend is more likely to resume than to reverse.

RSI is on the move up, though, indicating that bullish pressure is in play. Similarly stochastic is moving up so bitcoin could follow suit while bulls remain in control. Once both oscillators hit overbought conditions and turn lower, the selloff might resume.

It’s still worth noting that cryptocurrencies are off to a really strong start so far this month since this also marks the start of a new quarter. Investor optimism around these periods tend to be stronger, especially after coming off a downbeat performance in May and June.

Meanwhile, bitcoin is also able to take advantage of risk appetite even while investors are shying away from stocks and commodities. After all, these traditional assets could be more vulnerable to declines as trade tensions escalate.

The US dollar has been supported against its other fiat currency rivals, likely due to safe-haven demand, but there’s still some hesitation to establish big long positions as the US economy could be at risk.

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