Crude oil on the path upward

The price of crude oil gained traction upward when OPEC decided to cap production. Its upward movement continues this year after the U.S put sanction on Iran and there is a crisis in Venezuela. Recently, OPEC rewinds the production cap policy and shift to increase production.

Despite the increased production target to 1 million barrels per day, analysts think OPEC could only serve two-thirds of the target. The situation drives crude oil prices further higher. Unless there is a drastic change in the production, supply, and demand around the world; crude oil should continue higher until the end of the year.

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New Month

Monthly chart

Crude oil launched upside above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and monthly SMA 200. The upward movement might continue for long-term as there is no major resistance seen. Traders who are looking for the short position might want to avoid it at the current time. Long position will need to wait until retracement happen.

Weekly chart

The breakout point $66.88 proven as a good level for the long position after drawdown around $3.7. Long position from the level yield almost 10% gain. Currently, no suggestion for both long and short position as the price sitting at the top. Traders might want to wait for a pullback to happen before placing any position.

Daily chart

On the daily chart, the most notable position traders could take in the past was the bounce from the red trendline. Currently, the price hovering near the top of the channel we might see some reaction. However, the overall trend is bullish which suggest traders avoid short position.

Trade plan

Bullish trade: $66.88 and $70.00 are the levels to watch for the long position, but it is unlikely the price will hit both levels in the long-term. On another note, every pullback is an opportunity for a long position as crude oil on a strong fundamental situation.

Bearish trade: No short position suggested under current technical and fundamental situation.