USDX (USD Index)
Last week Non-farm employment came out worse than expected, with just 151k job added compared to 180k expectation. US dollar pulled fell after the news but recovered two hours later and stay above 95.8 until the market closed.
U.S market is on holiday today, with no catalyst to move the market we think U.S dollar index might just float inside 95.6-95.8. For this month we believe that it might come under pressure from bad data.
News to watch
UK continue with the string of data which beats, service PMI expand at 52.9 vs. expected 49.1.
For full outlook for this week, you can follow Forex Outlook For The Week September 5-9, 2016
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
A break happened to the bullish candle, unfortunately, a break not followed by daily candle close, instead we have a bearish candle. The price might range between 1.1150 – 1.1220 today as no major news to move the market.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.1150, 1.1130, 1.1100, 1.1020
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1240, 1.1300
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is unstoppable, jumped three times after Manufacturing-Construction-Service PMI beats and U.S NFP laggard. Market show nice rhythm, manufacturing PMI release bounced from 1.3120 area, construction PMI bounces inside resistance area, and Service PMI bounce from broken NFP resistance.
Currently, the price almost visits 1.3400 round number, and it is not far from final target 1.3500. A break above 1.3500 will smooth way to 1.4000 as no significant resistance seen between both levels.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 1.3300, 1.3276, 1.3250, 1.3200, 1.3176
Resistance: 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3500
USD/JPY
NFP brought USD/JPY to 104.00 – 104.50 resistance and it deflected the second time. We think the price will move between 102.50 – 104.50, especially after BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda admit downside of negatives interest rate and suggest caution over a further reduction of rates.
The market might not expect more monetary easing and will see stronger Yen shortly.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 103.00, 102.40, 102.00
Resistance: 104.00, 104.50
AUD/USD
There is more room for AUD/USD appreciation, and we will see big bear protecting big red candle after Yellen speech on 26 August. The price might just move inside the area around 0.7625 – 0.7660.
Today critical level to watch:
Support: 0.7580, 0.7550, 0.7500, 0.7420
Resistance: 0.7600, 0.7625, 0.7660, 0.7690