EURUSD is staging a reversal from its downtrend, as the pair broke above a falling trend line that’s been holding since mid-January. Price is retreating from the highs near the 1.0900 handle and might find support at the Fibs.

The 38.2% Fib is holding around the 1.0825 mark, but it looks like the pair could be in for a larger dip to the 50% Fib at 1.0800 or the 61.8% level at 1.o767.

If any of these hold as support, EURUSD could resume the climb to the swing high at the 1.o900 major psychological mark or higher.

The 100 SMA is still below the 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the selloff is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. In addition, price found resistance at the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point and might slide back below the 100 SMA.

Stochastic is heading down to show that sellers have the upper hand, and the oscillator has room to slide before reflecting oversold conditions so price might keep following suit. RSI is just turning south from the overbought zone, so EURUSD might be in for more declines as bearish momentum picks up.

EURUSD rallied despite mixed PMI figures from the eurozone, as the numbers still mostly reflected improvements. In particular, France’s PMI readings both came in stronger than expected, dampening expectations of ECB rate cuts anytime soon.

Meanwhile, US PMI figures also turned out mixed, with the services sector PMI falling short and the manufacturing report beating estimates. Initial weekly claims also came in better than expected but barely provided sustained support for the dollar.

Earlier on the FOMC minutes highlighted the pushback for Fed interest rate cuts as policymakers weighed the risk of easing too early, although this wasn’t a surprise to markets anymore.