GBPUSD staged a strong rally late last week but appears to be finding sellers at the 1.4000 major psychological resistance. This level has held as a ceiling since March this year and might continue to keep gains in check.

If so, GBPUSD could retreat to nearby support levels, possibly around the dynamic support at the moving averages. Then again, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the ceiling is more likely to break than to hold.

Stochastic is heading up but is already dipping into the overbought zone to signal exhaustion. Turning lower would mean that sellers are already taking over, possibly pushing the pair to 1.3900 next.

Recall that the BOE agreed to reduce weekly gilt purchases while one MPC member voted to reduce the total asset purchase target. Interest rates were kept unchanged as expected.

BOE Governor Bailey has a number of speeches lined up throughout the week, and traders are hoping to get more clues on when the central bank might start tightening monetary policy.

The UK preliminary GDP reading is also up for release this week, and a contraction of 1.6% is eyed, following the earlier 1.3% growth figure. An even sharper contraction could douse BOE tightening hopes for the year, which might mean losses for GBPUSD.

Meanwhile, the US is scheduled to print CPI and retail sales figures throughout the week. Both are expected to show a slowdown for April, and the latest NFP disappointment could mean that a downside surprise is possible.

In that case, the dollar could also be facing some downside pressure, as downbeat data could also dash hopes of the Fed hiking rates or tapering anytime soon. Headline CPI could print a meager 0.2% uptick while headline retail sales could slow from 9.8% to 1.0%.