Natural gas has been carving out a steady downtrend, with price action forming a descending channel that continues to guide sellers. A newer, steeper descending trend line has emerged within this broader bearish structure, keeping the commodity pinned below $2.700 and reinforcing the downside bias.

Price is currently hovering around $2.619, just above the swing low and 0.00% Fibonacci level at $2.590. This floor has held so far, prompting a modest consolidation after the sharp leg lower. A bounce from this area could draw price up toward the nearest retracement levels, where sellers may be waiting to reassert control.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement sits at $2.725, followed by the 50% level at $2.767 and the 61.8% Fib at $2.808. These levels align closely with the descending moving averages, which are sloping downward in a bearish formation, confirming that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA, adding further weight to the bearish outlook and suggesting the selloff could persist if no meaningful catalyst emerges.

A pullback toward the 38.2% or 50% Fib could still be on the cards as price gathers momentum before the next leg lower. Only a convincing close above the 61.8% Fib at $2.808 and the descending trend line resistance could signal a more meaningful recovery, with the 100% Fib level at $2.943 serving as the next upside target in that scenario.

Stochastic is meandering in the middle range, offering no strong directional signal for now, though a turn lower from here would suggest bears are regaining the upper hand. RSI is also trending in neutral territory around the midpoint, leaving room for a move in either direction before reaching extremes.

Inventory data and broader risk sentiment will likely dictate the next significant move for natural gas. Easing geopolitical tensions could contribute to unwinding of supply risk positions, which could bring another wave lower.