NZD/JPY To Test Ascending Channel Support

NZDJPY is trending higher inside an ascending channel on its hourly chart, with price pulling back to the mid-channel area of interest. This lines up with the 38% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels which might keep losses in check.

A larger correction could reach the channel bottom at the 81.50 minor psychological mark, which is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 81.61. This is also near the dynamic support at the moving averages.

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On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that support is more likely to hold than to break. Then again, the moving averages might simply be oscillating to reflect consolidation.

Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions to signal exhaustion among sellers, so turning higher would mean that buyers are taking over. In that case, NZDJPY could resume the climb back to the swing high around 82.20 or the channel top closer to 82.50.

RSI has some room to move south before reaching the oversold region to signal exhaustion among sellers. Turning back up would mean that buyers are returning and likely ready to let the uptrend resume.

New Zealand is scheduled to print its quarterly employment numbers soon, and a slight dip in hiring is eyed for Q3. After posting a 1.0% gain in employment for the previous period, this could slow to a 0.4% rate in the latest quarter. Still, this should be enough to bring the jobless rate down from 4.0% to 3.9%.

Stronger than expected results could fuel hopes for another RBNZ interest rate hike soon, likely boosting the Kiwi across the board. Weak data, on the other hand might mean more downside for the commodity currency.

Keep in mind, though, that the BOJ is one of the more dovish central banks recently and an extension of risk-taking could keep the Kiwi supported against the yen.

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