The NZD/USD has reached new lows today, but the bears seems a little exhausted on the short term, remains under selling pressure because is located below some important resistance levels (support has turned into resistance), however we could have a minor rebound if the USDX will start a correction phase. The USDX has decreased after the morning rally, has failed to stay above the 102.00 psychological level, we’ll see what will happen because is located right below an important resistance area, technically we could have a minor retreat in the coming days.
The NZD/USD has changed little today also because the United States Banks are closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day, we’ll see how the rate will react later because we have high impact data from New Zealand. The Statistics New Zealand will publish the Trade Balance indicator, the deficit may decrease from 1434M to 950M, could reach the lowest trade deficit of the last 3-months, the Kiwi could be boosted if the data will come better tonight. The NZD/USD could make new highs today if the New Zealand data will lift the Kiwi.
The rate has decreased in the first part of the day, but now is struggling to rebound and to recover on the short term, could increase again if will fail to retest the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork. Personally, I’m still waiting for the price to test and retest the second warning line (WL2) before will increase again. Remains to see what will happen because the rate could still be attracted by the confluence area formed at the intersection between the second warning line (WL2) with the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork.
Technically the rate is under selling pressure after the breakout below the 0.7053 static support and below the short red uptrend line, this level could be considered the Head and Shoulders pattern neckline, you can see that the rate has come back to retest the broken levels and then has slipped lower again. Is somehow expected to drop further after the breakout below the 250% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line).