Sugar futures surged to their highest levels in more than a year on Thursday as traders continue to price in a historic El Niño season that could decimate global food supplies.

October sugar futures climbed $0.0063, or 3.58%, to 18.22 cents per pound on Thursday on the US ICE Futures exchange. The agricultural commodity is poised for a 4% weekly gain and is up 22% year-to-date.

This is the highest level since March 2025.

ICE confirmed this week that open interest—the number of outstanding contracts—reached 2.3 million contracts, topping the previous record set in February 2010.

Funds had invested a record $2.5 billion into raw sugar contracts last week, industry data show.

“Supply and demand balances are shifting, a strong El Niño forecast through January 2027 is weighing on supply outlooks, and uncertainty around some of the world’s largest producing regions is prompting participants to hedge across the curve,” said Matthew Ryan, ICE’s senior director for soft commodities.

Investors have been pricing in a strong El Niño climate event across the agricultural commodities market. Bets were amplified when the US Climate Prediction Center projected a 90% chance of a very strong season between the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. Officials also forecast a 65% chance of a “historic El Niño” that exceeds all previous ones since 1950.

Market watchers agree that various commodities, particularly tropical items, could be exposed to a natural phenomenon that alters rainfall patterns and raises temperatures.

Other agricultural commodities were mixed on Thursday, but they are still trading at their highest levels in months.

October wheat futures surged $0.0975, or 1.3%, to $7.58 per bushel. October corn futures declined $0.05, or 0.93%, to $5.315 a bushel. October soybean futures erased $0.025, or 0.2%, to $12.635 per bushel.