On Friday, the US dollar index bounced back from the session lows of about 101.68 to trade at about 101.93 after the latest US data. The DXY trades within an ascending channel formation on the 60-minute chart.
The dollar currency index continues to trade slightly above the 100-hour moving average line after the rebound. However, the USDX still has room left to run before reaching the oversold levels of the 14-hour RSI.
The US Dollar Index Fundamentals Overview
From a fundamental perspective, the US dollar index trades during a relatively busy period in the US market. On Friday, the US jobs data for September came in worse than expected, at 29k versus a forecast of 90k, down from the previous month’s revised figure of 133k. On the other hand, the unemployment rate for the month rose to 4.2%, up from 4.0% in August, missing the forecast rate of 4.1%. The average hourly wage growth for the period also missed expectations of 0.3% (MoM) and 3.3% (YoY), with changes of 0.1% and 3%, respectively.
On Thursday, the US initial jobless claims for last week improved slightly to 197k, down from the preceding week’s equivalent of 198k, beating the forecast claim count of 200k. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for the period missed the expectation of 55, with a reading of 54.5, down from the preceding month’s 54.6, while the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid came in stronger than expected, at 77.9 versus a forecast of 72.3, up from the previous month’s 71.1.
Earlier in the week, the US ADP employment change for September rose to 90k, up from the previous month’s equivalent of 36k, beating the forecast of 70k. On the other hand, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September outshone the estimate of 51.2, with a reading of 58.8, up from 47.1 in August.
The US Dollar Index Technical Analysis (the 60-min Chart)
Technically, the USDX trades within an ascending channel formation in the 60-minute chart. However, the 14-hour RSI has recently pulled back to recover from overbought conditions.
Therefore, the bears will look to extend the current pullback towards 101.68 or lower, down to 101.41. On the other hand, the bulls will look to pounce on profits at about 102.20 or higher, up to 102.45.
The US Dollar Index Technical Analysis (the Daily Chart)
In the daily chart, the dollar currency index also trades within an ascending channel formation. The 14-day RSI also supports a long-term bullish bias after advancing into overbought conditions.
Therefore, the bulls will look to extend the current run of gains toward 103.29 or higher, up to 104.54. On the other hand, the bears will look to pounce on pullbacks at about 100.56 ot lower, down to 99.21.