USDCAD is moving inside a range visible on its 4-hour and daily time frames, and price is closing in on the top of its range at the 1.2850 minor psychological mark.

If this holds as a ceiling, the pair could fall back to the bottom of the range around 1.2475 or at least until the middle around 1.2650. Stochastic is suggesting that resistance is more likely to hold, as the oscillator is starting to turn south from the overbought zone.

Similarly RSI is heading lower after indicating overbought conditions or exhaustion among buyers. This means that sellers are ready to take over and spur losses for USDCAD

However, the moving averages appear to be bracing for a bullish crossover that might bring some gains for the pair. If price breaks above the range resistance, USDCAD could climb by the same height as the chart formation or nearly 400 pips.

The upcoming US advanced GDP and core PCE price index reports might be catalysts for big moves, as strong figures could spur dollar strength while weak data could lead to a retreat.

Slower growth is eyed for the first quarter of the year at 1.1% compared to the earlier 6.9% expansion. Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation measures might also print a downtick in price pressures, with a weaker than expected read possibly casting doubts on the Fed’s tightening plans.

There are no major reports due from Canada for the rest of the week, so the currency might take its cue from crude oil prices. The commodity is on weaker footing lately, as the API report printed a larger than expected build in stockpiles to reflect slower purchases or a pickup in production.

The EIA report is slated to show a 0.1 million build in stockpiles versus the earlier reduction of 8 million barrels. Another higher than expected increase might mean some downside for the correlated Loonie.