USDCHF is cruising lower on its hourly time frame, as price formed lower highs connected by a descending trend line since mid-February.

Price seems to be in the middle of a correction, with the Fibonacci retracement tool showing where sellers could join in. The 38.2% Fib is at .8937, then the 50% level is near the .8950 minor psychological mark. The 61.8% Fib is at .8976 close to the dynamic resistance levels at the moving averages.

On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is still above the 200 SMA to suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside, although the gap is narrow enough to suggest another crossover soon.

If any of the Fibs hold as a ceiling, USDCHF could resume the slide to the swing low at .8872 or lower. Stochastic is heading up but closing in on the overbought zone to reflect exhaustion among buyers soon,  so heading back down would mean that bearish pressure is picking up.

RSI has more ground to cover before reaching the overbought zone to reflect exhaustion among buyers, though, so the correction could keep going until that happens.

USDCHF could take cues from jobs-related indicators from the US now that the NFP release is drawing closer. The ISM manufacturing PMI released earlier this week revealed a dip in hiring for February, possibly contributing to a downside NFP surprise. The ADP non-farm employment change report is up for release next.

A weak NFP print could undermine the Fed’s relatively neutral stance, leading to expectations of more interest rate cuts this year and possibly USD weakness. On the other hand, a strong NFP result could bring more upside for the currency on expectations of fewer easing moves from the US central bank.

Overall market sentiment related to tariffs announcements could also influence USD direction in the coming days.